After scattered pockets recorded rainfall well above the September average, the weather has dried out with a southeasterly surge, following major weather over the southeast of the nation over the weekend.

The drier, stable weather under an upper ridge will keep most of the region dry, apart from a few morning showers about coastal areas

Later this week, we are likely to see moisture increase for the region ticking up rainfall chances with the showers and afternoon thunderstorms returning in random scattered pockets over the Northern Top End.

Build up is nearly here.

Lets have a look at the latest update.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Still remaining dry for the coming 10 days over much of the inland with a very dry airmass. There may be a few isolated showers over the east coast later this week in onshore winds. Later in the weekend into next week, humidity may return and a few showers and storms may develop in response, nearer the north coast.

Broader view shows that dry airmass in full control.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The weather is largely unchanged from this morning with the high pressure system in full control this week, which has been well forecast by models. The weather likely to trend warmer from the west of the nation this week, the frost risk starting to ease later this week over the east. Up north the humidity will gradually return with showers increasing for parts of the NT and QLD. A narrow band of cloud and rain will also pass through SWLD of WA, bypass SA and parts of VIC with the rain band then returning over western TAS with moderate rainfall. The inland areas of the nation relatively dry for now, but just outside of this window we have got moisture building and rainfall chances increasing for inland areas.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much if you are living inland at the moment with high pressure in full dominance. Up north, we will see increasing humidity values through the weekend and next week with isolated showers and thunderstorms returning. In the short term a few showers possible over the northeast coast in onshore easterly winds.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The PW anomalies are likely to remain drier than normal this week under high pressure in the wake of the front over the weekend. Humidity will gradually increase thanks to easterly trade winds over the north and then flow turning more northeasterly. Then moisture from WA through the Southern Ocean and Tasmania may be propelled into the southeast in the shorter term, the only opportunity for rainfall in the southern states in the coming week.

I will have more details on the modelling for potential next week with the wrap in models after 9pm.

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