NT - DRIER AND COOLER OVER THE SOUTH, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TOP END.

The humidity is increasing over the north of the Territory with another round of showers and thunderstorms likely along and north of southeasterly dry surge which has brought cooler weather to the south over the weekend. That surge could trigger a few thunderstorm this afternoon and overnight before the surge exits the coast on Monday morning.


Some areas along this surge have experienced rainfall totals up to 2-3x the monthly average and that could be replicated again over isolated spots over the Top End.


Lets take a look at the week ahead.

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

Not a whole lot after this dry surge moving north with a large high coming in from mid week clearing things out. There are some signs the weather will turn more humid again during the weekend with the rainfall chances possibly increasing in about 7-10 days time over the northern parts once again.


Broader view shows that drier air clearing out the inland - but the rainfall should return to inland parts next week.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

After the high pressure system moves in to the southeast, that will see the rainfall and cloud cover decrease and the risk of frost return to large parts of inland Australia. Then we will see an introduction of warmer air throughout the nation with a northwest flow developing as fronts run underneath the weather passing in from west to east. So coastal areas of WA through southeast SA and southern VIC with western TAS likely to see showery periods. The heaviest of the rainfall over the SWLD of WA or western TAS. Onshore winds drive showers onto the east coast with light to moderate falls over the FNQ coast. The inland should remain largely dry for the coming 7 days at this time, likely 10 days with high pressure dominating. There may be some thundery showers develop next week with humidity returning.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall coastal for the coming 10 days, the heaviest of that rainfall over the southwest of WA extending through to the western portions of TAS with gusty onshore westerly winds. Lighter rainfall from later this week over the southeast mainland but really the majority of the inland should be dry over the coming 7-10 days. A few showers may redevelop for the Top End during the latter stages of next weekend into early the following week as the moisture increases.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The drier air has surged through the nation's south and southeast and is working through the eastern and northern inland tonight and Monday. Another shot of moisture will come through the upper northwest winds ahead of a weakening cold front over SWLD of WA with that moisture drifting eastwards as the frontal weather tries to lift that up into areas of rain over TAS and showers for coastal areas of VIC. The moisture may begin to increase over northern Australia, with that moisture then sweeping southwest and south through the nation and then into the southeast inland after this period. That may be the next chance we see rainfall emerge across the nation.

I will have another update during the morning but the drier weather is set to stay for a number of days with heat levels coming right up in the next week.



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