NT - CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER

The humidity is set to rise earlier this year, lets take a look at the impacts on this through September 2021


Rainfall Outlook for September 2021

% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for September 2021

An early build is highly likely this year with already, humidity values above average in recent weeks and even some showers about coastal areas. This sets the stage for a higher chance of rainfall being above average for the month, especially over the far north where it is near certainty of higher rainfall chances. We already have the risk of showers developing for the end of the month which is impressive for August. This chance will continue into September. The weather is expected to turn sultry through coastal areas, and some of this may begin to drift south through Katherine, into Mataranka and maybe as far south as Elliot through the month, but really the higher chances of rainfall will remain further north the Arnhem, Gregory and Daly districts. This rainfall outlook is not hard to achieve with one thunderstorm dropping 30mm of rainfall in an hour.

Temperature Outlook for September 2021

% chance of exceeding the median temperatures for September 2021

It is hot hot hot at the moment and sadly, those dry season days are becoming few and far between in coming weeks and as we drift into September, more humidity is likely to develop for northern Australia coupled with mid to high 30s over coastal areas and low 40s for inland areas. This will play a part in producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over inland areas, especially if moisture gets involved. The most likely chance of shower and storm activity would be elevated and not producing a lot of rainfall but areas in green south of Elliot don't see rainfall during September. This will lead into a very soupy build up with a higher chance of heavier rainfall through October onwards. All that humidity in the desert country will lead to more rainfall opportunities down the Stuart Highway this spring.

The main driver in the September Outlook is connected to the Indian Ocean Dipole which should bring up humidity further through the coming 6 weeks. The impacts are already being felt throughout the north.


The other driver to watch is the ENSO region and whether we will see a La Nina weather event develop. Some global agencies are increasing the risk of a La Nina during the coming Summer which would impact the monsoon season greatly over the NT.

I will have another update on the La Nina risk on Tuesday and daily updates will commence soon for the NT with the build up starting earlier this year.

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