Very warm weather continues for much of the NT with the usual scattered showers and thunderstorms. We are likely to see an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the weekend and into next week as a trough develops over the base of the Top End.
The moisture will creep south into the southern and central areas of the NT during next week and daily storms NT wide can be expected as we move through next week, some of these could turn severe with damaging winds likely.
Lets take a look
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The rainfall is expected to remain uneven in distribution with some areas copping a drenching while others continue to wait patiently. The storms coverage will increase during the weekend and next week as a trough forms at the base of the Top End driving more convection and better chances of most areas at least seeing a decent drop. The rainfall is running ahead of schedule, despite some areas missing out, thanks to the warmer than normal waters over tropical parts of Australia.
A broader look at the moisture shifting south.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are likely to redevelop from between 2-10pm with some of the storms tonight gusty and tomorrow the odd storm possibly gusty. The coverage of storms a little more isolated with warmer upper levels passing over the NT.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
As per the video - the Euro is the solution I am siding with. Note the flow of westerly winds is being pushed south and all of a sudden severe weather season has erupted as per my forecasts on that back in July. We are looking at more of the same over the coming 4-5 days, a persistence forecast. The cooler weather over the southern coastal areas will be replaced by a warmer phase next week and then we will likely see the stormy daily events over northern Australia, shift further south through next week and come into the southeast and eastern inland by the end of the month into early November. This is the typical seasonal shift.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
The moisture again is building over the tropics and with a warmer atmosphere it lends itself to promoting more volatile weather which we have seen over QLD and NSW over recent days, larger scale rainfall events as well, the air can hold more moisture so when the low pressure systems return, be aware that it will be raining a lot. For now we continue with a drier picture for those under the upper high over eastern SA, western NSW and QLD as well as northern VIC. The east coast sees showers and storms in that humid airmass that gets stuck, which extends over the tropics which is typical. Be aware the forecast confidence beyond day 5 is poor at the moment.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more details.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more guidance - but that is a warmer pattern with scattered storms across the country.
More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT.