Strong upper high planted over interior parts of the nation, keeping relatively seasonal weather across the central and southern parts. Though a cooler southerly flow is expected to flush out the above average temperatures during the weekend and next week starts out dry and cooler.
The north, by contrast is warm to hot and humid with scattered showers developing with local thunder also possible. The build up is knocking on the door and so the last few weeks of acceptable and comfortable weather are on the way before we move into the mango madness!
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is expected to be limited to northern areas, with scattered random afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with isolated moderate rainfall totals with these pulse storms. Otherwise seasonal rainfall expectations for most of the territory, trending above average over the north. Darwin and surrounds could see 15-25mm this week which is above average for this time period.
A broader view, some chance of a light shower or thunderstorm further through QLD, a sign of the seasonal shift continuing to unfold, while the north is quite soupy.
00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pressure pattern unchanged in the short term with a high moving east this weekend making room for a cold front and blast of colder air to move through the southeast, this being projected across the eastern half of the nation bringing a spell of below average temperatures through to southern QLD. Showers over the southeast states will contract to the NSW coast next week, dry weather resumes for much of the south and continues for most inland areas. A trough and low over WA, born out of the high heat (first one this season) will move towards SA and the Bight later next week bringing very warm weather across the nation and the potential for rainfall to develop next weekend from WA through SA and into the eastern states, but as you can see above, the weather downstream may interrupt the impact of the rainfall spreading throughout the south and east so this will form the focus of the short and medium term forecasts coming up.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is limited to coastal areas still with the bulk of the rainfall coastal with onshore winds. High pressure over inland areas will maintain control for the coming 7 days while fronts and troughs develop on the periphery of the large scale ridging. The next major system to watch is the low and heat trough forming over WA that will come south into SA and the Bight later next week with an impulse of moisture from the Indian Ocean which could see rainfall develop. But otherwise inland areas have to wait another 7 days at least to see a pattern flip and air mass change.
Further west, note the trough over inland areas next week with thundery showers over inland parts which could come into play for the southern NT. That will be watched, and if by chance it increases, we could be on for rainfall in the second half of the month.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days
The airmass change will take a week as mentioned, with the drier air reinforced this weekend thanks to the strong cold front over the southeast, propelling the moisture north and northwest, and knocking out the moisture coming through QLD back out to sea. The moisture then redevelops over the northwest of the nation next week thanks to a trough approaching WA drawing in moisture from the north. Trade winds will also return later next week and propel moisture over the northern tropics. This too eventually being drawn south in favourable upper level winds.
I will have more on the full suite of models and rainfall, build up is knocking on the door and the charts will start to have more rainfall for the NT as we go through the outlook periods, in the coming weeks.