NT - BUILD UP AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, SET TO SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND.

The high humidity with scattered showers and storms continues for the Top End with some of these storms gusty and heavy at times over the Daly and Arnhem districts in coming days. The storm activity returning daily, with the introduction of showers along the coastal areas of the northwest coast as well during the morning and evening.


This moisture over the north will move southwest and south with a trough over the base of the Top End merging with another trough over the northwest of WA and through the Central Interior and through to SA.


Some of the storms could turn severe across pockets of the state from the weekend with damaging winds and heavy rainfall about.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is patchy, heavy if you get under the right cloud, but really hit and miss. The coverage of thunderstorms and showers will begin to increase in the coming days with colder upper levels leading to more support for shower and thunderstorms development. Another trough forming over the western border areas of the NT and across the base of the Top End will result in more showers and thunderstorms further down the Stuart Highway with more rainfall coming into outback areas ahead of schedule.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to return on Wednesday with most, not all, between 2-10pm. The thunderstorms will be gusty at times with heavy rainfall as they meander throughout the Top End.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is slack at the moment away from the west, with a blocking pattern setting up over the Tasman Sea which is blocking the passage of a strong complex change passing through WA today. We will see a trough that is along the NSW coast with a weak low drive showers and storms tonight and again on Wednesday. The system over the west will collapse over SA and be pushed south of the continent because of the block over the Tasman which we have spoken about, but a trough will remain over the land and become ill defined and devoid of moisture so it will pass through SA, most of western NSW and VIC in dry fashion. From Friday, as that system begins to move further east, you will see that system emerge into showers and thunderstorms for eastern NSW and QLD again this weekend. Another system will approach WA early next week and run into the Bight this time next week and likely help to pull down moisture from the tropics via inland WA and SA to increase the showers and thunderstorms risks over SA and VIC through NSW at the end of the run.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

No change from this morning or indeed yesterday. The dry air circulating around the southeast and central inland will largely remain trapped under ridging throughout the remainder of this week leading to the driest weather VIC and parts of NSW have seen in quite some time. The southeast and east coast sits under low level moisture and with weak troughs passing through, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along these as they meander through, especially over eastern NSW and QLD. Some of the storms again in the short term forecasts could be severe. Over the tropics, deep moisture is pooling and will be dislodged from the tropics and sent south through the continent next week as the upper air flow turns northerly and helps to propel the moisture into a developing trough over southern WA and into SA later in the outlook period. Overall a typical late October look.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall is becoming very hard to draw on charts when it looks like this. After the rainfall over the SWLD of WA is through, the rainfall will be derived from showers and thunderstorms, your number will vary and the distribution will be uneven so that is the best I can offer. The next widespread event is towards the end of the month, timing of that system is the issue more than whether it will happen or not.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more

More details on all things rainfall after 9pm EDT with my model wrap.


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