NT - BUILD DOWN CONDITIONS COMMENCE AND THE DRY APPEARS TO BE IN THE DISTANCE.

That is a relief I am sure to many in the NT after what has been a drawn out and very productive, humid wet season. For now the weather remaining hot and humid with scattered showers and gusty storms. Some of those will likely turn severe over parts of the Top End in the coming days as they race from east to west.


Across areas south of about Elliot, it is looking dry, hot to very hot with dry air and clear skies with easterly winds. A taste of the dry or is in proper? We will find out in the coming weeks with the MJO moving through the north of the nation if not too the north. There will likely be an uptick in the rainfall spread for the second half of the month which may be the last of the monsoonal weather for this wet season.


This is typical weather for the NT in March where we start to see the rumbles of the dry on the horizon.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall is about what you would expect for this time of year. It may be a little below average on the modelling but a thunderstorm can deliver 30-50mm in a sitting so it is really moot point about the accuracy of rainfall outlooks at this time of year in the absence of organised weather events. For now we are leaning towards a benign period of weather as the wait continues on what the MJO does over the region for the second half of the month. Central and Southern NT, you are boring, dry and stable which again is normal for this part of the world.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop once again during the afternoon and evening with severe wind gusts possible with the organised lines of weather racing east to west through the Top End mainly north of Larrimah.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Flash flooding is a low chance for the Top End during the afternoon and evening.


Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds are a chance of the northern districts during the afternoon and evening.

DATA - Refer to video for more details and model analysis and context behind the forecasts above.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The severe weather risks for the east should begin to ease on Tuesday as the low pressure system over the Tasman deepens into a surface low and moves east. The winds and showers persisting through the week but the rainfall intensity coming down. Storms will contract into QLD through this week with the risk of severe thunderstorms still relatively elevated. Across the remainder of the nation it is looking fairly benign with only a handful of showers and storms over in WA along the central and northwest coast. The weather over the tropics seasonal. Temperature wise, hot to very hot in the west, grading to warm to hot in SA but milder along the coast and into the southeast and eastern inland where conditions will remain below average over the east coast. Hot and very humid for the north with routine showers and storms about.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values are coming down for parts of the eastern and southeast inland which has been well documented here for a while. Moisture will increase over northern and western Australia with moisture being pulled in from the jet stream which is running over the Indian Ocean. The moisture over NSW will contract further east and northeast into QLD and that is where it should stay until it is reintroduced into inland QLD and NSW this weekend and into next week. Moisture from the west will spread through SA and into the southeast inland and eastern inland next week. That will see rainfall chances come back up.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

A closer look in - refer to the video for my analysis on the state based look. Watching very closely the impact of the MJO moving through the north of the nation. More on that in the morning.

More coming up from 8am EDT tomorrow. I will resume the models and rainfall outlooks from tomorrow night once we lose the east coast low event and see what we are looking for in the medium term. I will have the 6 week climate outlook as well.

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