The weather, very quiet across the NT at the moment. There have been some gusty storms about in the past few days. There was a nasty storm that passed through the Daly River region last night that I have seen shredded trees and brought some damage to isolated properties, so where storms form, they will pack a punch.

For now the coverage of thundery weather with reliable rainfall will be over northern areas of the NT. The high based dry thundery weather is expected to return to the southern areas, south of about Renner Springs through this week.

When does the pattern shift? Mid next week, with the moisture increasing and the coverage of rainfall also increasing as well.

A monsoon trough is also likely to form at some stage next week.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains below average for large areas of the NT with hit and miss gusty storms to continue for the next few days, they will have the potential to produce more damaging winds. The weather over southern areas remaining dry and stable for the most part until the weekend. Some very weak thundery weather is possible over the southern areas with light rainfall. The pattern will begin to turn more seasonal over the weekend for northern areas but in the south it will take until next week for showers to become a little more numerous and the humidity values to come up. The monsoon should be knocking back on the door of the north from mid next week with rainfall and tropical mischief also increasing across the north.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will once again be mainly isolated to scattered over the Top End and mainly about the base of the Top End with storms possibly severe, with damaging winds a likely risk for those communities from about Wadeye through Adelaide River and down to about Dorisvale.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds are a high risk over the southwest Top End and through the Gregory District. Storms have the potential to produce wind gusts of 100km/h.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

I do love persistence forecasting, no change from this morning, as spoken about, the main climate drivers at play, the SAM and MJO are set to become in phase to produce rainfall and cooler weather for southern, eastern and northern Australia than what we are seeing right now. Inland areas are currently missing out while the coastal areas are recording some pretty hefty shower coverage of eastern QLD and northeast NSW, that is seasonal. The weather is expected to become more humid over inland areas and over northern Australia as the drivers start to combine with the La Nina that is the overarching driver, to bring back that wet weather, severe weather potential and flood risks back. So make the risk of the drier spell while it lasts.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture content is still below average at the moment but that is likely to shift over the coming week and turn above average from mid next week onwards with the onshore winds and the monsoon returning to the picture. So very different weather conditions are expected to form in the coming 10 days, setting the stage for a wet end to the month and a wet start to March.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information and the state based fly around

A closer look in - more details in the video

More details coming up tomorrow morning from 8am EDT.

The rainfall and all things modelling posts will return when the guidance improves regarding the rainfall, those posts may return from later this week.

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