NT - BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED IN THE FAR NORTH. WEATHER DRY AND HOT OVER THE SOUTH MID WEEK.

The weather is starting to turn more build up like over the northern parts of the Top End with significant moisture building as the weather trends build up like which is to be expected with scattered afternoon rain storms developing.


The coverage this week will be isolated but combined with the humidity, the day time heat will be excessive with only these showers and thunderstorms to bring brief respite.


Over the central and southern areas, the air is dry and stable and no rainfall is expected, however next week, we may begin to see the moisture spread south down the Stuart Highway and across to WA as the upper level winds begin to freshen.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is patchy and light to moderate over the north, but some areas could see 20-40mm over the course of the week, thanks to one shower/storm. Drawing these on a map ahead of time is useless and outside of a tropical system, these rainfall charts should be read with some caution. The south may start to see rainfall just outside of this outlook period with a deeper moisture supply moving south.

Thunderstorm Forecast

Thunderstorms are possible once again along a seabreeze front moving south and southeast from the coast and converging with southeast to easterly winds over inland areas. This will be the focus of the pulse thunderstorm activity. For the Tiwi Islands, you are a marginally higher chance of seeing thunderstorm activity mid afternoon.



DATA

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

No real changes from this morning with widespread rainfall over the eastern states dominating with lighter falls back over SA for the coming days. Severe storms bringing wild weather to parts of NSW and QLD in particular. Flooding a concern under the current synoptic guide as discussed in the video for the east. QLD could see there best rainfall since July with the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over a number of days. For western parts of the nation a few showers and storms tomorrow ahead of a stronger front on Friday bringing more widespread rain and strong winds. That system will have a tough time up against the blocking pattern over in the east. It is still likely to bring scattered showers and gales to parts of SA and into VIC, but moisture is way more limited than with this current system. Another system should roll through the southwest of the nation early next week with more showers and storms, that system again tracking eastwards. Over the tropics the weather turning sultry and thundery, though an upper high may suppress activity at times next week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Again no real shift in the guidance with widespread rainfall developing out of a deep moisture layer that has built via easterly winds since Sunday and another port of mid and upper level moisture rushing in on the northern flank of low pressure in the Bight into the eastern states via the jet stream. Widespread rainfall is starting to occur over the eastern states as a result. The moisture content will stick around until southerly winds sweep the moisture out to sea. Another moisture surge comes south and southeast through the nation bringing another burst of rain to the west near the trough and front. The moisture thins out as it hits a brick wall over the east so rainfall coverage will not be as extensive due to this blocking pattern. Then another surge of moisture is anticipated over the southwest and west of the nation with another system next week, the tropics turn soupy and humid with increasing PW values and perhaps some of that drifting into WA sitting ready for the jet stream to pick up and lift southeast.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall unchanged from last night and this morning, your number will vary under thunderstorm activity. The best of it falling over the east and southeas these next few days, before the focus shifts back to SWLD of WA Friday and then that sweeps through the southern states during the weekend and into early next week. Another system may bring more rainfall to the SWLD of WA continuing the trend of above average rainfall for the region this year. The northern tropics remain suppressed so if you are a fan of feeling like you are in Hades, well this weather will be for you.

A closer look in now.

Northwest and Northern Tropics.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

You can find out more about this chart in the video.

More details to come tonight from 9pm looking at the full model spread and an update on the severe weather potential, IF there are any changes ongoing.

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