Dry weather for the south at this stage with cloud increasing during the week, as troughs meander about the nation, at this stage I am leaving it dry for southern areas, but this may begin to shift next week.

Over the north there is a chance of more widespread cloud developing during the afternoon and evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms about. The falls random and no one can tell you ahead of time where and when they will form, but they will be about. The build up is in full swing next week with very high heat levels.

Lets take a look at the latest.

Rainfall next 10 days

The rainfall is largely confined to northern areas of the NT, where the deeper moisture begins to develop. An upper high will likely develop over the region, acting as a dome, we have felt that today, with limited showers about despite the clouds. But once we lose the upper high, the showers will return with a greater coverage developing later next week. Over the south of the NT, dry and warm to hot with cloud increasing later this week. There is a chance of thundery showers about the risk is small for now so I will keep the forecast largely fine for now.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

There is the very slight chance of a few of the taller showers over the far north and about the Tiwi Islands spitting out a bolt of lightning, but really it is a suppressed atmosphere.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Pressure pattern is largely unchanged from this morning and indeed from our last major update yesterday. The weather is largely dominated by areas of low pressure and copious moisture returning via easterly winds over eastern Australia and the Indian Ocean with the west coast trough. This likely to converge over the eastern and southern inland of Australia for the best part of this week. Another system is likely to move in from the west of the nation later this week and this sweep into SA and then the eastern states later in the period. Up north it is becoming unsettled with the traditional shift towards the wet season and build up conditions. This will likely be the best opportunity for rainfall for many areas in some cases for months.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

You can see the moisture move back through the nation bringing up rainfall chances from tomorrow and really right through the coming 2 weeks. Needless to say, marrying this parameter with the pressure pattern, we have three major events on the board if you look off the GFS (refer to the video) and two events on the Euro which carry a higher degree of confidence in the shorter term.

The moisture converges over the east with widespread rainfall developing this week. Can see the moisture streaming out of the east and then merging with moisture out of the west.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall generous over southern and eastern parts of the nation with the series of troughs, the most widespread falls over the eastern inland where the flood risk remains this week. Moderate rainfall possible for SA and WA with the systems passing through but it will be the secondary system that needs watching for these areas. Up north we know the wet season is knocking on the door and this too will increase rainfall chances for northern Australia. Eventually this will improve rainfall chances for QLD. Otherwise we are moving into an active period for most areas of the nation.

A closer look - you can refer to the GFS in the video.

Euro 00z - Temperature Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Temperatures are largely seasonal, though probably trending slightly cooler than normal through the southern and eastern inland where persistent cloud cover and rainfall will mean temperatures stay below average. That may also be the case for western areas of the nation as well, but up north the build up is early and heat levels are above average for this time of year, leading to that increased risk of early onset rainfall.

More coming up at 9pm looking at the rainfall across all models and my analysis of which ones carry a low moderate and high chance of verifying. It is going to be a busy week.

0 views0 comments