Before then, well above average temperatures with a hot northwest wind being drawn in from the deserts lifting the chances of near record temperatures. The weather is expected to turn cloudy over the south with areas of rain forming near a weak boundary passing north through the NT.
Over the north there will be an increase of humidity later today and into Thursday and Friday with the chance of thunderstorms and showers redeveloping as that boundary over the south slowly moves north.
The latest blog.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening in isolated pockets along the sea breeze front as it moves south. They will be short lived pulse storms with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. There is a high fire danger locally associated with these thunderstorms.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is patchy over the north but if you get a storm, you could see 25mm in about half an hour, but these will be isolated. Otherwise 20-40mm possible under a stalled boundary over the southern NT is expected this weekend, but once again, you have to get under the right band of rainfall. Thunderstorms will bring the heaviest falls, but thick cloud cover and patchy rainfall could bring the first rainfall for the year for many areas.
00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern is unchanged from this morning and diverges with the GFS run tonight still so they are split with how the system evolves over the east and that impacts rainfall and temperature forecasts from run to run. The modelling will continue to be divergent for probably another day for the east in how the rainfall event evolves. For the remainder of the nation, there is good agreement of a large high taking full control and bringing colder southwest winds into next week for much of the nation. Then the west warms up ahead of another cold front mid to late next week. The east may get into showery air, dependent on the easterly wind regime and whether it becomes unstable which again, there is no clear guidance on this evolving.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall contained to the major rainfall event sweeping through from Friday through the early part of next week before skies clear over the inland from south to north over the inland. Showers may persist over the north coast into mid next week with a low forming offshore but more model rendering needed with this. Otherwise the majority of the outlook beyond the weekend is dry and settled.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days
Dry air has been booted out of the interior and north today and this has lead to areas of afternoon convection with a few showers over the Gulf Of Carpentaria in response. That moisture is surging southwest tomorrow into the approaching long wave. The long wave itself introducing some modest moisture but it is mainly in the upper atmosphere. That will merge with the deeper moisture coming in from the north and the rainfall looks to increase over the southeast and eastern states, bypassing much of SA this time. Dry air surges behind the front and looks to be held over much of the nation next week under high pressure. Moisture may remain elevated about the east coast in onshore winds but forecast confidence remains low.
Finally I made these forecast observations last week in the lead up to this pattern shift back to rainfall potential about the areas on notice about moisture intrusion. I update this site frequently, and to make YOUR subscription sing, it is imperative YOU read the forecasts, watch the videos and explainers to get the best information. Looking at a chart or model data with no interpretation is not how weather works and will only cause disappointment.
Analysis of the models last Wednesday. Note where the moisture was forecast to be and where it has ended up today!
Another solution and analysis over a week ago - this was last Monday
Another solution which has been closer to the truth! This was last Tuesday!
So it pays to read and to keep across the details.
I will have another update coming up after 9pm looking at the model data from this evening across the board.