The warmer weather is beginning to increase week on week, as the seasonal shift continues to unfold across the region.

Over the south, a high has begun to move further to the east, allowing a northwest flow to drag in the dry heat from northwest Australia into the interior and onwards to the east, this dry air not supporting any cloud or rainfall at this time.

The north, areas north of Katherine at this time, expecting to see a large increase in humidity, and with the upper air a little colder aloft, this may support a few showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening inland, and morning showers along the coast.

Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall again is limited to northern areas, with the build up slowly unfolding week on week. The showers will begin to develop from the weekend in particular and given the PW values, the rainfall totals could exceed 20mm with the taller showers and storms. The weather continues to remain unsettled over northern areas during next week, the moisture sweeping south into a trough that is passing through SA later in the run, bringing an increase in rainfall over the central and southern areas mid month.

A broader view shows the drier weather continues for the next 10 days.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

All the major weather is further south. The pattern over the coming days is fixed, fine and settled weather right through to the weekend over the south and east, the west sees rain tonight and tomorrow clearing through Friday in time for the weekend. Over the weekend it now appears that the cold front coming through, likely to move through without a low forming on the front, as expected, the twists and turns continue for the eastern coastline, but once again expect more changes in the coming days surrounding this. Rule of thumb the most active weather from Sunday over the southeast and the east coast from Monday through Tuesday. The lack of a low pressure system may open the door for another system to pass through from WA into SA and the potential for this to tap into moisture and see rainfall chances come up for the southern and southeast inland later next week if not the weekend. The north, tending humid with showers and the odd thunderstorm about as the build up progresses.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Dry for the coming week over the southern and central parts with increasing temperatures and drier air. The humidity will increase over the north with showers returning to the forecast over the weekend and next week with light falls for most areas, the odd heavier fall with thunderstorms. The build up slowly starting to take hold in the coming week.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

Dry air continues to dominate the atmosphere over the nation, hence the lack of cloud cover at the moment. The moisture will be reintroduced into areas of the south with a weak system passing through Tasmania. Another shot of moisture will come across northern Australia via the easterly winds with that increasing the heat values. The humidity will then spread south and southeast via upper level winds with a trough helping to lift that into showers and thunderstorms over inland areas at the very end of the period.

I will have an update on the models once again at 9pm, looking at the all important rainfall data for the short and medium term.

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