NT - AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS - RAIN EASING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

Has been quite a damp and cooler day through much of the south and central areas under cloud and areas of rain, which was well forecast from last week. The weather is anticipated to clear throughout from Monday afternoon with the trough moving east and the air drying out a tad with a southerly flow, the showers and storms contracting north through the NT.


Up north, some of the storms could pack a punch with strong and gusty winds and heavy rainfall over the Top End north of about Elliot.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

The falls over the south of the NT are expected to move southeast and into the eastern inland as a trough moves away. The unsettled weather will snap north through the NT and unseasonal rainfall may continue for the Barkly northwards to the Top End with isolated heavy falls. The rainfall over the Top End this week will increase in coverage as the air aloft becomes colder and more supportive of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening on most days.

A broader look across the NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are ongoing at the moment through the outback and through to the eastern border with QLD and into NSW. The weather over the Top End is expected turn unsettled again on Monday with the random pop up showers and thunderstorms - mainly between 2-10pm with the chance of some morning showers over the Daly coast.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

An active surface pressure pattern as outlined in the video is also reflected in the Euro this evening with now three events on the board for the east and a strong low for southwest WA emanating from the tropical Indian Ocean. So there is plenty to watch. The ongoing rain and storms over the eastern inland of the nation will continue to drift further east in the coming days with moderate to heavy falls possible. Some of those falls could see up to 1-2 months worth of rainfall for some locations. Then we track another strong system into WA tomorrow which will bring showery cold weather, well below average temperatures. This system helping to knock out the eastern low and trough and quickly bring rain and strong winds to SA and then into the southeast states, and well below average temperatures. This system will forma deep low over SA and then into the southeast later this week and there could be severe thunderstorms in the warm sector over the eastern states ahead of the low and then showery cold weather with local hail and thunder with snowfalls for Alpine areas. Graziers beware. Out west the weather warms up with above average temperatures, that will help form a heat trough which then moves east over the eastern states early in the following week with more rain and storms and possibly another low. A strong low pressure then approaches the west coast of WA with anomalous weather conditions possible, with heavy rain and strong winds. That is something to watch! Over the north, this period will see the usual showers and thunderstorms for much of the period mainly afternoon and evening, this feeding troughs with moisture further south and east lifting rainfall chances.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

You can see the blue shadings across the north and east bringing widespread rainfall chances in the short term and then again in the medium term, watching the Indian Ocean closely as that may have a huge impact on rainfall for the back half of the month.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall accumulation is of moderate confidence in the short term but with the system approaching mid week for southern and southeast areas and then with the system floating off WA later in the period, these carry low confidence straps for now. It is an active period of weather but it is not uncommon to have a lot going on during Spring time. So keep the forecasts close.

A closer look in


GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

I will have a wrap on the models and all the rainfall data coming up tonight, there is a lot of weather in the distance and I cannot stress enough the risk this poses for people over the south but more likely to east of the nation.

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