Well above average temperatures are continuing for the next few days up north with a nice dry surge moving north of the NT this morning. The showers and thunderstorms are going on break for a few days up north before they return from later this week.

In the south, the run of below average temperatures will continue until mid week, but then warming up with a northeast flow, bringing in the warmer air from QLD. The region remaining mostly dry for now, however a trough and low passing over SA may spark a few showers and thunderstorms over the southern areas.

There is the risk of a few isolated thundery showers in the far southwest tomorrow afternoon but not a high enough chance to mention beyond a low chance.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is largely on hiatus for the coming 3 days with a dry airmass in place. The weather dominated by dry air and a ridge in place. An upper high is expected to suppress the rainfall chances for the next 3-4 days up north but the weather will return to seasonal by the later in the week into the weekend. Now the rainfall chances will remain high from this period on right through April for areas up north. There are tropical waves passing to the north of the nation which will begin to influence weather from later this month into December. So enjoy the drier and hot weather while it lasts with minimal humidity.

Rainfall is expected to creep up over northern parts of the nation through next week as more moisture deepens throughout the period.

DATA - Looking at the GFS tonight - you can find more details in the video above.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The moisture builds up to excessive levels through the medium term and while the rainfall prognostics look lighter than previous runs, the moisture values scream higher rainfall potential, so this forecast will continue to evolve.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Excessive values return to the north and note the surge of moisture coming through WA and through the Coral Sea into QLD through the end of the month.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in - these values will change.

More details on all things rainfall coming up after 9pm EDT. Also the 6 Week Outlook to be updated tomorrow as well.

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