NSW - WINTER OUTLOOK 2022

The Winter Outlook is still looking wetter than normal for many areas west of the divide, but as forecast back about 6 weeks ago, the weather is forecast to dry out as the dry season kicks into gear and given the dominance of the jet stream cloud band passing into the frontal weather moving through Southern Australia, this may lead to rainfall being focussed over the inland.


Now in terms of temperatures, the guidance from the modelling has not been great so far for the first fortnight of Winter with a really cold start that looks to continue for a while.


I am leaning towards the season tending wetter and remaining near seasonal in terms of temperatures as we move through the Season.


This is thanks to the Indian Ocean Dipole tending sharply negative, this phase is already in development phase with the waters north and west of Australia supportive of this.


Let’s take a look at the latest information

RAINFALL

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for Winter 2022

Rainfall is forecast to remain elevated for many locations on and to the west of the divide with the rainfall heaviest over the interior stretching back northwest towards northern SA and into the southern NT. The rainfall through this region is a lot lower than what we see over southern parts of the nation so even though the chances are higher over interior parts of the state, the more impressive values are over southern areas where we are moving into traditionally the wetter period of the year. Along the east coast, keeping things seasonal for now but we may see drier bias develop over the southeast and east coastal areas if the westerly wind dominance continues.

The higher-than-average rainfall is forecast to appear on and west of the divide through QLD, thanks to cold fronts and jet stream cloud bands merging, we have seen that in recent days and we are seeing the persistence of the cloud bands over interior parts of the NT and spreading into QLD and northern NSW. This is expected to ramp up through Winter, I suspect more expressive rainfall events are likely in the July and August.

The rainfall bullseye is certainly on and west of the divide where some areas could see their wettest Winters in about 25 years. That is the guidance, but whether we see it play out in reality remains to be seen. I have moderated some of the rainfall expectations that the models are showing but some of the values are close to the highest I have seen expressed ahead of a Winter season since following weather back 20 plus years ago.

TEMPERATURES

%Chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median temperatures for Winter 2022

More information can be found in the video, but we are looking at relatively seasonal temperatures overall for Winter 2022, despite the colder start to the season for many areas. The season should become warmer and wetter as we go, on current guidance.

Key Points

More details can be found in the video and these issues will be discussed further in the days and weeks ahead as we move through June and into July.

Key charts

More details on these can be found in the video

Sea Surface Temperatures and areas to watch.

Where the ENSO forecast was to go for the first half of 2022 - we know this did not verify.

Where the ENSO region is forecast to go for the remainder of 2022.

Make sure you cross check this information with the short- and medium-term data and forecast analysis here daily to put into context the information you see here. Understand the further you go out the less accurate the weather forecasts get, hence why the forecasts are broad here. I will have a look at Spring 2022 later this month and a preview for Summer 2022/23 as well.

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