The run of below average temperatures are set to continue through much of the inland and east thanks to a slow moving high pressure system that is moving in from the west.
The gales from overnight which delivered 130km/h winds along the coast have now eased as the low that bombed offshore is now moving away. The rainfall also easing for coastal areas.
The inland has remained relatively clear overnight and some frost patches have developed
The low pressure system offshore the east coast is moving further east but the outer bands are still bringing gusty showers.
Rainfall has largely eased this morning, but the coastal areas seeing frequent showers. The cloud over the GDR and points east will slowly break up.
Rainfall totals for the event now moving past 100mm for the coastal fringe and up to 75mm over the Central Tablelands. The rainfall is slowly contracting eastwards.
Some frost about the inland this morning mainly west of the divide, but the wind profile being up overnight saved us from the widespread severe frost which is good.
Turning to the week ahead and we have a frosty start on Thursday morning with pockets of severe frost likely as we will see the winds much lighter tonight than last night, that's what saved us from the severe frost risk over the eastern half.
Friday another trough will rotate offshore the southeast and a pool of colder air coming through the eastern inland will introduce enough instability for a few showers once again.
Another trough on Sunday will bring yet another burst of showers and possible thunderstorms throughout the state. There could be moderate to heavy falls over the southeast of NSW Thursday into Friday.
Next week still looking at a major weather system evolving from the west which will likely gather strength as it passes closer to SA and into the eastern inland.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The low continues to move off the east coast allowing the pressure pattern to start moving west to east. A high over the inland is controlling the nations weather for the most part through the weekend. We have a front passing over SWLD of WA during Thursday bringing showers. Another trough will move over the southeast with showers developing during Thursday and Friday, some of the rainfall over southeast VIC and NSW could be quite heavy with convergence setting up. The moisture over QLD increases during Friday and into the weekend, especially east of the GDR with showers and thunderstorms developing. The falls patchy but extending inland a bit, but will be confined to the eastern third of the state north of Hervey Bay. Then we watch a strong cold front developing next week over the west, which will bring a very warm burst of weather through the southern states. A band of rainfall is likely to move from WA, through SA and into the southeast states. This system falls just outside of the 10 day forecast. The medium term has further spring weather with fluctuations in the temperature and rainfall breaking out from time to time along troughs over the south and east. The humid weather will be back over the north.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall now confined to the east coast and southeast of VIC with lighter falls later this week over the southeast inland with a trough. The southwest of the nation will see lighter falls from Thursday and across the weekend while the east dries out. The weekend may introduce showers and thunderstorms with a weak trough over QLD Friday through early next week before another trough over the southeast inland brings showers and a storm Sunday. Then the weather settles under high pressure before the major rainfall event starts to brew over WA and moves eastwards over southern Australia. There are more rainfall events sitting in early September which signals that the spring weather with changeable weather will continue.
12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
Moisture flushed out through the past 24hrs will slowly rebuild over the northeast of QLD and through WA bringing back the chance of showers with a front passing over southern WA and a trough developing over eastern QLD. The rainfall may increase on and east of the trough through QLD and the moisture will eventually overrun the dry air dominance through the weekend into next week. The moisture then deepens further into the medium term and there is a very deep layer of moisture that is set up through the nation and low pressure troughs will lift this into areas of widespread rainfall for many parts of the nation as we track through early September. So expect the forecasts to start becoming wetter in the coming week.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The Euro has more dry air lingering around but essentially very similar to GFS over the coming week. So there is good agreement in the scope and scale of systems. For QLD, your rainfall and how far west that comes is determined by the timing of the troughs moving through the southern parts of the nation. That will act to pull the moisture offshore next week. Then we will be tracking that major rainfall event that forms over WA with a classic spring set up, warm to hot northwest winds being drawn southeast followed by a band of rain and colder air from the southwest. Over the north the moisture will eventually return so enjoy the drier air this weekend.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall very lean for the coming week over inland areas. The coast should see the bulk of the rainfall during this period, with a high over much of the inland dominating. It is not until we see a new system surging through from WA and across the southern states that rainfall will return to large parts of inland areas of southern and eastern Australia.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
You can see the moisture values below average through much of the nation which is normal after such a strong southerly flow blasted through. The dry air will stay in place for much of the inland for the coming 5-7 days, with moisture confined to coastal areas under the synoptic setup. Then with the high moving east next week, we will see the moisture pass through QLD into the NT and then captured by that stronger system moving out of the west, and this is where will see the rain band develop for the east and south.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Coastal rainfall will continue this morning but will lift off the coast as the low moves away. The inland is dry and cold for a few days. We may see showers developing for the southern inland Friday with a weak trough and that could turn to persistent rainfall for the southeast inland of the state with moderate to heavy falls about. Then the weekend it dries out for most areas. Now a trough over QLD could dig down and produce a few showers over the far north and another trough will sweep in during Sunday from the west with a few showers and a storm over areas west of the divide. The next statewide soaking could come through right at the end of the 10 day window. More on that in the medium term forecasts.
I will have more detailed charts for regions when the rainfall returns with higher confidence, for now the broader outlook shows the one system leaving the east coast this week and another on the approach later in the outlook. In between weak troughs will keep the weather interesting with scattered falls.
Medium term forecasting will look at the major rainfall developing from the west in early September.