NSW - WILD WEATHER THURSDAY, COLDER IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY - A NICE WARM UP NEXT WEEK WHILE EAST IS WET
This week has absolutely everything going on at the moment and so be weather aware, pay attention to the forecasts, warnings and keep an eye on the radar as well if you are living in a storm forecast area. The risks tomorrow of impact are moderate to high from thunderstorms.
The weekend we are seeing conditions ease and clear for much of the state as high pressure moves in clearing the weather from north through to south.
Next week the winds are set to turn the easterly and a trough offshore may spark showers and storms for parts of the east coast north of Sydney, some of that could be heavy at times. There may be some residual moisture spread inland with scattered showers and storms along the GDR.
Trending warmer over the inland ahead of a thundery change later next week.
Lets take a look
Rainfall next 10 days
Rainfall is expected to be widespread in nature but uneven in distribution. The more concentrated falls expected to be over the southern and southeast inland of the state where bands of showers and storms will rotate around a broad low. Thunderstorms along a trough will deliver some big falls to some and little to others, that is how it rolls and anyone telling you specifics....well you know how I feel about that. Next week the weather over the inland west of the divide trends drier and more stable. On and east of the divide we may be dealing with extensive showers in onshore northeast to easterly winds and that will lift into thunderstorms about parts of the GDR. Drier and warmer northwest winds flushes that moisture out this time next week ahead of a thundery change from the west which may bring patchy falls out west.
Heaviest Rainfall with this system is over the southeast of NSW.
Thunderstorm Forecast NSW and VIC- Thursday
Thunderstorms are expected to turn scattered and numerous with severe thunderstorms highly likely over the eastern districts, especially north of Sydney through the afternoon and evening where the air is more unstable due to a clearer start to the day. Thunderstorms likely to be ongoing over the southern and central inland areas from overnight hours where some of those could be severe, running through the ACT during the day. These may produce damaging winds and heavy rainfall, the hail risk is limited due to the time of day that the storms are moving through, the air unable to reach high volatility levels but will watch trends. The storms over VIC tonight could be heavy at times, but likely turning into a broad area of rain with thunder overnight and into Thursday. Further showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the low passing over SA into western NSW later Thursday with small hail and gusty winds.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Winds are expected to be breezy with a gradient flow as the low pressure system begins to approach from the west overnight and into Thursday. The risk of damaging winds with thunderstorms is very high over eastern NSW and QLD where more energy will be built up in a warmer airmass. The risk tapers west of the trough and over the southeast where the atmosphere is more stable thanks to ongoing cloud and cooler stable air at the surface. Another wave of damaging winds will be ongoing through SA but will begin to ease during the day before heading into NSW.
Large Hail Risk Thursday
Large hail is a very high risk with the strongest storms in the purple zone. NOT EVERYONE WILL GET HAIL. But the risk is broad thanks to the dynamics at play. The rule of thumb tomorrow, the warmer it gets the more unstable it will become, the higher the risk of hail with thunderstorms. Giant hail is possible over the northeast of NSW and SEQ. Small hail will be ongoing trough southern VIC and SA with cold air showers and thunderstorms.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
Intense rainfall rates with thunderstorms are expected tonight for some parts of southern inland NSW and into VIC, running along the face of the slow moving trough which is starting to get its act together over Central VIC back into the Riverina. Tomorrow the trough will lift deeper moisture laying over the eastern third of NSW which is where you will find the more robust thunderstorm activity, capable of producing rainfall rates of 100mm/hr. Storm motion will be modest so rainfall accumulation could exceed 50mm/hr in these areas. Lower risk in the morning over northeast VIC and southeast NSW.
Tornado Risk Thursday
Moderate risk of tornado activity over the eastern parts of NSW, more likely in the northeast and southeast QLD. 1 or 2 of these tornados could be longer track rather than a brief spin up. The turning in the atmosphere is supportive of this chance. Also brief low based tornados are possible about southeast SA and into western VIC with a low pressure system skirting close by. These will be brief and hard to detect ahead of time.
Riverine Flood Risk Friday and Saturday
Residual flooding over the northeast of NSW is likely to ease by the weekend. Up to 100mm has fallen this week. Over the southeast the main concern is to come, with a wrap around band of rain and thunder coming through on Friday and Saturday as a low moves to the southeast. Falls over 100mm possible.
Farmers and Graziers Warning
Cold blustery and showery weather with the passage of a cold cored low and trough over the coming days, leading to high impact weather to vulnerable stock in SA, VIC, NSW and TAS.
DATA - Refer to the video for more details
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The pattern is dynamic and thunderstorms are now developing along the trough through western VIC and NSW with moderate to heavy falls. This will continue to unfold tonight for the east. The low pressure system south of the EP in SA is expected to pass over the region tonight. Remain weather aware over the coming 2 days if you are living in QLD, NSW, VIC, SA and TAS. The event should start to wind down from about Saturday with rain easing over VIC and TAS as the last small scale low under the broader upper low moves away. Out west, a strong cold front and low pressure system is expected to bring a large rainfall event with some areas possibly getting over 1 months rainfall with that feature next week with severe weather risks, including damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The tropics producing showers and thunderstorms most afternoons but they could become more isolated as an upper high builds. If that happens, heat levels will go through the roof. Over the east coast of QLD and NSW, showers may increase with a coastal trough next week while the southeast trends warmer and brighter. The change from the west may eventually spill into the southeast bringing a thundery change later next week.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
We can see the importance of moisture in play right now over the east as the trough works into moist air, this leading to thunderstorm development this evening and overnight over NSW and VIC and a violent day of weather tomorrow. The next major systems on the board to watch over WA early next week with a deep moisture source coming in from the Indian Ocean and another trough on the east coast being fed by onshore winds and deeper moisture. The moisture eventually folding in over the east of the nation the blocking pattern perhaps not as strong than this morning's run of the models. So that could see rainfall chances developing from mid week.
00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more details
A closer look in
00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to video for more details.
More details on the rainfall and model data tonight after 9pm EDT