NSW - WILD WEATHER ABOUT TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FOR FRIDAY.

The active weather continues with an upper low slowly progressing east, with multiple troughs and surface lows underneath producing widespread showers and thunderstorms. More thunderstorm activity is expected into Friday before conditions begin to ease this weekend.


Next week, a cooler pop of air is likely to sweep through the southeast with a westerly shift, possibly seeing further rain back for southern inland areas as waves embedded in the flow pass through.


Weaker signals for more widespread rainfall developing during mid to late next week.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall scattered and heavy over the state tonight and into tomorrow before the focus of rainfall moves eastwards as the trough and unsettled airmass moves away and weakens. Over the weekend it will be a chance to dry out for most areas, however the weather is likely to turn cooler and showery over southern inland parts during Sunday afternoon with a westerly shift. Next week, passing fronts will bring bursts of lighter rainfall while the remainder stay dry, but the confidence is low at this time with moisture lurking through the middle portions of the nation which could be absorbed into pattern next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to fire once again over much of central and eastern NSW with a risk of flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail. The most severe weather is expected further over northern and central NSW where the air is warmer and more unstable. There is the chance of storms producing flash flooding up and down the GDR during the afternoon and evening before they weaken at night. Drier air out west will see conditions ease during the afternoon as the low moves further east.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding is a high risk with any thunderstorm that gets up and going east of the trough with high moisture levels in the atmosphere allowing thunderstorms to be efficient rainfall producers. The rainfall is expected to clear once the trough passes through inland areas.

Large Hail Risk Friday

Large hail risk is beginning to contract further east, to be more likely on and east of the GDR in central and northern parts of the state. The risk diminishes a little as the storms approach the coast, but this is the most active day of weather for the coastal communities in this sequence.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds more likely again over central and northern parts of NSW, and contracting east with the trough. Strong upper level winds will support damaging straight line wind threat through the northeast third of the state.

Tornado Risk Friday

Low chance less than 5% for a tornado to get up and going over the far northeast and in southeast QLD during the afternoon and evening IF supercell thunderstorm activity gets up and going.

Riverine Flood Risk

There are flood warnings out for northeast VIC and southeast NSW extending onto the Central Plains with the risk peaking tomorrow before rainfall clears into the weekend.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is still dominated by the low pressure system over the southeast driving the severe weather over the coming 36hrs. Another large cold front will come through the southwest of WA bringing widespread rain and storms through the region with moderate rainfall and gusty winds on Friday with the showery weather to continue through to the weekend. The change will race through the southern states with gusty winds and showers over the weekend into the southeast by Sunday afternoon and follow up waves of low pressure likely to keep the showery weather going for much of next week. The most widespread rainfall looks to be mid to late next week with another low pressure system with the potential for moderate falls. That system unlikely to bring severe weather. The north is hot and humid with pop up showers and storms which may begin to increase in coverage during the middle of next week. It looks cooler than average across southern Australia next week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Moisture is deep and extensive over the south and east and also through southern Australia back into the west with another surge of moisture. We were dominated by dry air last week, this is what the pattern flip looks like. Next week, we see the tussle between the dry and moist air with a wavy flow pattern underway. Each system coming through southern Australia will have the potential to bring spring showers, you can see the most widespread moisture again is early in the period and mid next week, and note how it rotates around the north of the nation and then southeast into the jet stream.

The moisture watch chart shows this and the model spread.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall is quite extensive over the east over the coming 36hrs and the SWLD during the coming 36hrs with two low pressure systems in full control. The north is unsettled with a few showers and storms through this week, with again mixed odds in the modelling, does the moisture come south or east or does it stay contained over northern Australia? This will impact rainfall chances and amounts over the south and east as we move through the coming 10 days. I suspect that next week could turn wetter than what it is leading onto at this time.

A closer look in

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

You can find more information in the video blog above.

I will have more from 7am tomorrow - I will renew the regional charts in terms of rainfall and the model watch and rainfall once this system in the east is off the board.

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