Not much change to the trend in the modelling. It is warming up today with a northwest flow developing.
Still have a change mid week that looks to interact with moisture coming through central NSW with areas of rain developing along that front as it passes through.
The weather is expected to clear fairly rapidly throughout the inland however the coastal areas could see a return to showers developing, with easterly winds redeveloping as high pressure comes through the southeast.
The weekend, an upper trough is still expected to come through the inland parts of NSW and could link up with moisture via the easterly winds which could increase showers for inland parts of the north.
Next week, the modelling fun continues with easterly winds feeding moisture through the nation and another burst of moisture coming through from the west and northwest, increasing the threat of inland rainfall and now a low pressure system is being picked to roll through the southeast of the nation.
Lets look at the latest data for the short term.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The weather pattern locked in for the coming 5 days as we spoke of. We know all about that front passing through tomorrow through Thursday morning and that is unchanged from last night. The weather then clears through the inland until mid next week. For coastal areas the next system to watch is that boundary which comes through Thursday, moves north Friday and then becomes near stationary during the weekend. Some signs of inland showers and an increase of coastal showers, especially up north. Then GFS still printing out a complex weather pattern next week with areas of rainfall breaking out through many inland parts but as I keep saying this will change. However the moisture is still there. I wish I could be more specific but it is not possible.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall most widespread Wednesday through Thursday over SA, VIC and NSW as a front rolls through however the weather is expected to clear fairly quickly with a drier and more stable airmass to follow from the west during Thursday. Then the focus of the rainfall shifts to the eastern seaboard as the winds veer easterly. That will see most of the southeast dry and mild. There is a system expected this time next week as we trace a low through the southeast and moisture surging southeast into the region, that could produce widespread rainfall for many areas, but pinning that does is tricky.
12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The moisture is largely unchanged in the medium term with a good supply still wafting around the northern parts of the nation. That signal remains unchanged, it is coming down to the low pressure that develops over the nation. We can see today a low pressure system moving through the south and east next week, troughs over the northern inland of the nation producing northeast winds dragging in more moisture and moisture circulating through the Indian Ocean that is drawn southeast during the early and latter part of the period. We also have easterly winds that look to become entrenched for QLD and NSW with showery air reserved for QLD.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern is still unchanged from last night, but is introducing rainfall coming through the eastern inland with this feature approaching the Bight today today, that rolls through rapidly during the coming 36hrs. The boundary then becomes stuck as it moves up to the QLD border by Friday, easterly winds develop for the east coast and that is where the rainfall risk stays for the weekend, while the rest of the southeast is dry and settled until early next week.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall is modest but could be moderate to heavy through southeast NSW and eastern VIC. That is thanks to the deeper moisture and the front running over the topography. There will be lighter falls over SA and VIC, with 5-10mm in scattered pockets. Less than 2mm for the drier areas over the inland. Then a drier phase for the southeast inland with the focus of rainfall returning to the east coast as a southeast to easterly flow develops. Some increasing chance of rainfall returning for SA, VIC and NSW by Tuesday with a low pressure system rolling through with moisture drawn south and east into that system. Will have a look at that again tonight and it carries low confidence at this time.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
Moisture continues to increase the short term over the northern and eastern parts of the nation. This will become the focus after the front rolls through the southeast during the coming 48hrs. The moisture will be drawn in via easterly winds with a high anchored out in the east and once the west of Australia settles down with high pressure ridging over there, this will carry the moisture from QLD, through the NT into WA via easterly winds and damming that over the northwest inland of nation as well. The humidity values will be elevated through northern areas of the nation increasing the chance of rainfall for the tropics.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
I am drawing in the rainfall potential for next week now rolling through with the low pressure trough/system that should bring patchy rainfall for areas over eastern inland Australia. The rainfall amounts next week will move around as we get closer. The main rainfall that carries a higher confidence this period is tomorrow night through Thursday with moderate falls possible about the southeast of NSW and about the ACT and tablelands to the north.
Climate Update for September due from later this morning and storm outlook part 2 today will look at the chance of flooding through the nation.