NSW - WARMER WEATHER TO COME, SHOWERS EASE OVER THE EAST. COLD BLAST LINES US UP NEXT WEEK

The cool nights and sunny days for the inland are set to continue as we track through the coming 2 days with a warm northeast to northerly flow. The high-pressure system that is placed over Tasmania has been sitting in the same position for the past 5 days and this is forecast to move off by tomorrow towards NZ, this thanks to a cold front that is set to move through SA tomorrow.


A weakening front that brought the severe weather to the SWLD of WA is weakening as it hits the brick wall over the southeast thanks to the high-pressure ridge. But this front is expected to see clouds increase and a period of patchy rainfall and thunderstorms to the far west on Thursday and into the east on Friday, but the ridge of high pressure is forecast to redevelop over southern Australia with a mostly fine weekend forecast.


With the high moving off, this will see showers easing during the latter part of this week.


Now over the weekend we are forecast to see a large cold front surging north through the Bight and then moving into SE SA and into the southeast interior leading to a larger batch of showers and storms with the colder shift expected to kick off Winter. Along the front itself, there could be widespread rainfall and moderate to heavy falls possible over southern and southeast NSW, mainly west of the divide into the ACT before we see the colder shift.


Showery weather for the south and central areas through next week, may fall as snow over the higher ground above 700m as well before we see conditions ease towards the end of next week.


A cloud band could form over the interior of the nation and this then pushing across the country, but whether that brings further rainfall chances to the state remains to be seen.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be quite light on for inland areas until about Sunday when the next strong cold front is expected to move through the state. Until then, we will have scattered falls along the coast with moderate falls, but the upper trough responsible for this wet weather over recent days is on the way out. The weather drier over the weekend across the state, but as mentioned, a strong cold front moving into SA and VIC during Sunday will spread a band of gusty rain through the state on Monday with showery weather to follow through to mid next week. Moderate to possibly heavy rainfall with the front and light to moderate rainfall over the state, mainly west of the divide, will feature. Showers may contain small hail, squalls and snowfalls down to 800m. Conditions ease later next week with another ridge approaching. But there is some chance we see a cloud band passing through WA through SA and into the north and west of the state, which may provide patchy falls once again, but this remains to be seen.

Coastal areas will see a reduction in the rainfall as the trough moves east but still expecting some moderate falls tonight and tomorrow. There will be rainfall developing during the latter part of the weekend for inland areas as a trough and strong front pushes through with that colder shift next week.

SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

This forecast will continue to evolve but seems to be the main concern for the event.

Farmers and Graziers - Heads Up.

If you are Grazier dealing with large amounts of stock, this weather is the transition system where moving vulnerable stock to protected locations may be advisable, with the sharp drop in temperatures and very high wind chill coupled with widespread showers.

MEDIUM TERM

May 31st-June 7th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall signals becoming quite cloudy at the moment, with not great guidance. But for now, expecting the bulk of the rainfall coming through with the system over the southeast keeping the totals at seasonal values for now, may be a little above normal in pockets. Over the northwest and west, a decaying rain band should fizzle out over Central Australia. A weak signal for follow up heavy rainfall developing through southwest WA during the end of this period. Drier bias continues along the coast for now with westerly winds.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to moderate over in the southeast after the cold outbreak to kick off Winter so the end of this period, temperatures should warm up a bit. In the west, persistent cloud cover will lead to below average temperatures. The northern tropics will have drier air, but the warmer than normal temperatures will continue. Clear skies in the southeast with high pressure following the cold outbreak may see frost form for a number of mornings.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Watching the pattern evolve from the easterly wind dominance and evolving into a traditional westerly wind regime leading to widespread cold weather and showery conditions for the south of the country from later in the weekend and into next week. While the southwest and the east remain somewhat drier and more settled under such arrangements, this won't last long with further systems to watch through the coming medium term taking us through to Queens Birthday weekend.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture is still relatively above normal through the southeast and east of the country at this point in time and running through the jet stream aloft from northwest to the southeast with a good supply of rainfall for this time of year expected for the northwest of the nation. The weather over the southwest drier with a high close by and colder southerly flow. That cold dry air will blast through the southeast and south this weekend and into next week and we see a more typical weather pattern unfolding for early Winter.

00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information

00z CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

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00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the rainfall is favouring the westerly wind regime still and I am still watching that moisture running through the nation for the medium term. So, lots on weather wise coming up through the region in the next 1-2 weeks if this is correct.

More coming up tonight from 8pm EST looking at the broader data sets to see how they are handling the rainfall moving across the country. More coming up from 530am looking at the systems on the horizon and then the next weather video from 8am EST.




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