NSW - WARMER AND BRIGHTER WEATHER COMING AHEAD OF RAIN LATER THIS WEEK.

No change in the weather coming up this week, starting out with bit of cloud for some today with a weak upper trough filtering the sunlight, but the remainder of this week, warm to hot and breezy with northwesters. Then a developing change passing through on Friday will still bring a dynamic change, a colder surge and the chance of more widespread rainfall.


Latest analysis in the blog below.


Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is largely confined to the major front passing through the region from later this week into the weekend, with a low confidence on rainfall distribution existing tonight for this event. The falls look to be widespread as they should be with any major temperature battle, with moisture involved. The issue remains around the timing, strength, speed of the front and how much moisture surges in from the northeast and east in those easterly winds that are underway over QLD. Where the moisture links in, how it times itself with the front moving in from the west is key to maximising the rainfall potential. The follow up system that has been on charts in recent days is still there on some modelling, but it is even lower confidence in terms of forecasting that with any great specificity. Just be aware there is the potential for dynamic weather developing during the next fortnight.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro is in good agreement in the short term, warming up with well above average temperatures until Friday, then conditions start to shift in association with the passage of a strong cold front. How the cold front evolves over the state still up in the air, the Euro passes it through slowly over the weekend handing it off to QLD and the NT by early next week with a dry cold airmass but again a low confidence forecast strap applies for now. This forecast will change again during the future runs, so once again, the main takeaway tonight is - warming up with well above average rainfall, patchy rainfall spreading east through the southeast on Friday, heavier rainfall likely for eastern VIC and parts of inland NSW and then showers and storms for inland QLD and southern NT early next week. Much colder air filtering through the southern half of the nation next week leading to below average temperatures.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Still a low confidence forecast in terms of rainfall, as outlined in the video, the rainfall is fully dependent upon the timing of moisture coming in from the northeast and north, the timing of the front and whether a low develops on the front as it passes over SA through the southeast and how the follow up cold air behaves into the weekend over the southeast, does that move north, does it move east? Those questions will ultimately be answered mid week onwards as the system responsible, the cold front, becomes active in real time and the modelling can feed or real data, rather than hypotheticals. Welcome to spring time in Australia in terms of modelling, very poor at times.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The main feature for this major rainfall event later in the week is the merging and absorption of moisture from the north and east of the nation, where does that take place and how much moisture survives the journey from WA into SA. These questions will be answered mid week onwards. Follow that a colder drier surge is being progged by most models next week so expect a period of below average temperatures and if the air is indeed dry and stable, severe frosts are possible next week which could pose a problem for crops.

Frosty start for areas over southeast NSW and along the GDR before the warm up begins Tuesday morning.

Finally one of the culprits in the model madness is this climate driver which is showing relatively neutral to positive periods in the coming 2 weeks, but note the outliers going strong positive and strong negative in the next 10 days, that is what is causing the model madness. This will continue to occur as long as this remains as split. The Southern Annular Mode in a positive mode brings rainfall back over NSW and QLD, a negative phase lifts those cold fronts north and batters the south.

Climate update coming up during Tuesday with a look at September in a broader view.


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