NSW - WARM AND BREEZY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. RAINFALL??

A mild to warm and breezy end to the working week is on the way with a cold front passing over TAS tonight strengthening the wind profile into Friday before a stronger front approaches during Saturday with a much colder shift developing Sunday into early next week.


We have seen many solutions on the table regarding rainfall potential with that system, the latest details on that and beyond below.

FORECAST

RaInfall for the next 10 days

There is not much expected over inland areas, in fact many areas going dry over the next week at this time, high pressure and a large amount of dry air has been ingested into the interior and as mentioned will take some time to override. The rainfall chances do return to the east coast next week with onshore easterly winds with the weather expected to remain cloudy and cool on the coast through next week. The next change on interest is expected to approach the southern states later next week into the following weekend, and by that stage rainfall chances in the future will be elevated with an atmosphere shift underway, from dry air to more moisture dominating the nation.

Farmers and Graziers Warning - Sunday into Monday.

The weather turning sharply colder over the coming weekend into next week, though it is a short burst of colder weather, the drop in temperature could place some stock under stress Sunday into Monday, especially in the south.

DATA

GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern next Friday.

The potential blocking pattern - if a low and high do happen to collide in the Tasman Sea, this may force the system coming out of WA southeast through SA and west of Tasmania. This would erode rainfall chances for SA and the southeast later next week.

Euro- Surface Pressure Pattern next Friday.

No block set up and the system can then move more east than south lifting rainfall chances for the southeast and eastern states on this current look, but this will clearly be an area of contention in modelling for the coming 4-5 days so standby for more volatility.

Watch the Indian Ocean moisture next week, can we see the negative phase starting to play out later next week, with moisture streaming through the country into the southern and central inland of the nation?

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pressure pattern unchanged in the short term with a high moving east this weekend making room for a cold front and blast of colder air to move through the southeast, this being projected across the eastern half of the nation bringing a spell of below average temperatures through to southern QLD. Showers over the southeast states will contract to the NSW coast next week, dry weather resumes for much of the south and continues for most inland areas. A trough and low over WA, born out of the high heat (first one this season) will move towards SA and the Bight later next week bringing very warm weather across the nation and the potential for rainfall to develop next weekend from WA through SA and into the eastern states, but as you can see above, the weather downstream may interrupt the impact of the rainfall spreading throughout the south and east so this will form the focus of the short and medium term forecasts coming up.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall is limited to coastal areas still with the bulk of the rainfall coastal with onshore winds. High pressure over inland areas will maintain control for the coming 7 days while fronts and troughs develop on the periphery of the large scale ridging. The next major system to watch is the low and heat trough forming over WA that will come south into SA and the Bight later next week with an impulse of moisture from the Indian Ocean which could see rainfall develop. But otherwise inland areas have to wait another 7 days at least to see a pattern flip and air mass change.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The airmass change will take a week as mentioned, with the drier air reinforced this weekend thanks to the strong cold front over the southeast, propelling the moisture north and northwest, and knocking out the moisture coming through QLD back out to sea. The moisture then redevelops over the northwest of the nation next week thanks to a trough approaching WA drawing in moisture from the north. Trade winds will also return later next week and propel moisture over the northern tropics. This too eventually being drawn south in favourable upper level winds.

I will have more on the full suite of models and rainfall, especially a look at next week which does pose a lot of interest for areas from WA through to NSW.




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