NSW - WARM AND BREEZY FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLDER SHIFT THIS WEEKEND. RAIN NEXT WEEK?

ANALYSIS

Fairly benign weather conditions are expected to feature for a number of days, too far north to be impacted by frontal weather and too far south to see much of an increase of moisture from the north until next week.


So, for the next 3-4 days, it is settled and dry with large high pressure ridging through, cloudy in the south at times, but no rainfall of note at this juncture.


All the action is still stuck back in next week, with how that unfolds, you guessed it, still up in the air.


SHORT TERM

The short term is benign with that ridge of how pressure in full force across the state leading to the drier and relatively clear skies. Some cloudy periods are likely for areas in the south along the VIC border but otherwise no rainfall is anticipated at this stage.


We may see some showers move into the far south on Sunday with a stronger front on the approach and that moves through with some force during the afternoon but a drop in temperatures is what you will notice more than rainfall for much of the state into early next week, after what will be a dry and warmer weekend.


The deepening upper trough that has been causing havoc with the modelling continues to do so over the course of next week and this will be on great interest to many of you.


LONG TERM

Watch out for that moisture surging southwards from the tropical north into the NT, QLD and then possibly into NSW and eastern SA through mid next week and further southeast if the pattern allows into VIC and the ACT from mid to late week.


The confidence on the scale and spread of the rainfall remains to be seen, but there are increasing risks of this rainfall event being followed by further areas of low pressure wafting on the northern flank of the westerly wind belt, leading to more rainfall events as we move from the end of June and into early July.


AREAS TO WATCH

How long does the moisture sit over northern and eastern Australia through the outlook period and does that continue to merge with the upper level troughs and lows that are likely to be wafting through southern Australia.


The SAM is forecast to turn more neutral, possibly positive for a period, but ultimately have a break from the long duration negative phase which has ruled the past 2 weeks or so.


The moisture may be low over parts of WA and points west over the course of the next week or so, but the moisture is still deep leading to well above average rainfall over the Central Indian Ocean. It will eventually flood back through the jet stream, but the pattern over the east of the country needs to break down, that doesn’t look to happen until the first week of July at the earliest.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 23RD JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

I have pulled back the rainfall totals as the general intensity among the broader data sets are even more divergent than yesterday, but the spread of rainfall remains the same. Watching the bulk of the wet weather for NSW coming through the spine of a trough Tuesday through Wednesday next week with the heaviest rainfall over the northern parts of the state and into QLD. Understand, if we see colder air from the southeast of the nation moving north into the moisture that is drifting through from mid next week, we could see more widespread and heavy rainfall developing than what is being shown here. In the short term we will see showers mainly over VIC with a front Friday and Sunday, but a few could creep into the southeast and southern inland following days of low cloud and mizzle.

Rainfall Next 15 Days

Rainfall confidence remains poor through the short and therefore the medium term. We will likely see multiple areas of unstable weather moving through and higher moisture loads at this time via easterly winds as the SAM tends positive, but with the higher moisture values streaming southwards from the north and northwest and increasing moisture from the east, we could see a significant amount of rainfall on the cards for early July. Despite the models tending drier, it is good to keep the forecast the same and then we adjust tomorrow to see the movement in the models, rather than shifting wildly.

MEDIUM TERM

June 30th - July 7th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Still have indications that the wetter than normal weather over the east is set to continue with a trough and deep moisture lingering over the north and east. The weather over the southeast and back through SA into Central Australia and the northwest is somewhat of seasonal expectations. A dry bias over the southwest and west of the country will continue but it will be in the process of moderating with frontal weather returning.

Temperature Anomalies

The weather is expected to slightly cooler than normal for large areas of the west and south of the country as high pressure lingers in the region and if the flow is more southerly over the southwestern areas, then we will see colder weather, but if the high is further east, the colder bias could be further east, so it is low confidence. Warmer than normal weather and higher humidity is expected over the north.

DATA - Refer to the video for further context and information related to the short- and medium-term dog's breakfast/forecast guidance.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further context on the information below - and to understand why it is low confidence forecasting.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture also becoming more widespread but that does not guarantee everyone gets rainfall through the northern and eastern areas of the nation where it is forecast to be deeper. The drier bias continues out west and into central areas for now. More details in the video.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - like yesterday, do not be seduced by the drier bias today! This forecast will change once again for many areas so more coming up in the days ahead so stay close to the forecast.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.


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