NSW - UPDATED RAINFALL GUIDE AND FLOOD RISK FORECAST

The latest data coming through is suggesting parts of eastern NSW, especially those areas along the GDR from about Canberra north to about Tamworth and east from there, could see heavier rainfall totals of 100-200mm from this event passing through today through Tuesday morning.


I have updated the flood risk forecast for this event, for additional flooding across the region. Depending on the rainfall development and placement with this upper level feature (very hard to track ahead of time), we may be dealing with new areas of flooding developing in areas that have been spared so far. So make sure you pay attention in the zones highlighted.


Rainfall Next 5 Days

Rainfall is set to increase in coverage this afternoon and this evening, with scattered thunderstorms developing as well, these bringing the heavier falls today and tonight and through Sunday. The nature of the system being that it is slow moving means that rainfall totals should stack up quickly with a few locations possibly seeing 50mm plus from thunderstorm activity alone. Areas of moderate rain tonight and through Sunday morning to continue for the southeast and east of NSW, especially closer to the upper low. Another round of storms tomorrow for northeast NSW eastern NSW through to SE QLD will bring additional high level flash flood risks for both states. Areas of rain and thunder will continue into Monday from about Gippsland through eastern NSW and possibly as far north as SE QLD. Heavy falls possible about Gippsland and through the Central and Hunter regions, with very heavy falls possible about the Upper Hunter and the Barrington Tops and extending into the southern end of the Mid North Coast in the southeast flow closest to the low pressure. This guide is based off the very latest data sets and will again shift and refine as we go through the coming day. So make sure you have access to the radar and severe weather forecasts. The western third will remain dry with a southerly flow and ridging edging in from the west.


Additional Flood Risks Saturday through Tuesday

I have amended the forecast and increased the risk along the Hunter and Central coast of NSW and extended the risk into the tablelands through central and northeast NSW. Thunderstorms over the remainder of the inland today and tomorrow will bring a flash flood risk but unlikely to contribute to ongoing riverine flood issues for now, but this can change as we see new data sets come in.

Conditions are set to ease by Tuesday afternoon.

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