NSW - UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY OVER THE INLAND, DRYING OUT THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE CLIMB.

The weather is certainly soupy and unsettled at the moment with a broad area of instability triggering a few showers and thunderstorms. The weather will slowly move eastwards on Friday with the airmass drying out and remaining pretty warm too. A few showers and storms tonight will be back tomorrow but contracting east.


The weekend, most areas are dry however the coast could see a few showers and coastal thunder, reaching the coastal ranges. But for many of you, dry and mild to warm weather along the coast.


Next week, a westerly wind regime will try and develop in advance of a large long wave which will be collapsing south of SA. A tongue of hot dry air will work southeast and east from the central interior leading to a hot start to the week. That front and trough however will bring a few showers and storms through the state from Tuesday.


A low chance of a cloud band increasing in coverage through NSW mid next week with light to moderate rainfall ahead of that cooler airmass riding north. We could also see another round of showers and thunderstorms for parts of the coast with another southerly change moving up the eastern seaboard.


Medium term, as mentioned this morning it is a hot mess and the divergence in modelling is frustrating, BUT, it does offer insight that we are seeing hints of the seasonal shift on the modelling and that should offer some of you looking for seasonal conditions to return so hope that we can escape the sowing season without the searing dry heat.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains of low confidence throughout this period, that is due to the uneven distribution of rainfall via the thunderstorm coverage. There also will be some passing showers and storms with a weak front through the southeast of the state Friday into Saturday, that feature will run up the NSW coast. Some chance of moderate showers with a thunderstorm possible this weekend before clearing north. Next week, watching a series of weak troughs passing through the southeast, but along and to the north of these troughs, there is moisture likely to increase in the mid and upper levels which could see widespread cloud develop with patchy rainfall emerging. Light rainfall for now but the confidence on the rainfall as I have outlined continues to be low and will remain so over the coming few days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are likely to continue from overnight and into Friday but only in isolated fashion over the southeast and east. The thunderstorms may increase a little over the afternoon and evening across the dividing range. Another wave of thundery weather may appear over the far southwest during the afternoon near another weak trough. No severe weather is expected at this time.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There is more information in the video and to cut down the reading, once again due to low confidence this forecast output from the GFS will change meaning your rainfall, temperatures and humidity values presented on some of the apps available to you are flawed as this will not happen. Refer to the video for more details as to where things are headed across the nation.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content is all over the board from run to run beyond 5 days so unfortunately we have to be patient for another 2 days I reckon before we get more clarity on conditions for next week. But it is important to watch the videos to keep up to date with trends to see where things are likely to head.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

More on another brief look at the longer term ensemble models after 9pm EDT tonight. Until we get more clarity it will be low confidence forecasting for most areas of the nation, which is normal for this time of year.

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