It has been a dog's breakfast in the weather modelling world, with the divergence continuing through today with regards to the system passing through later in the weekend into next week.
Will we see an open wave pass through with not much impact, or does cold air in the upper levels cut off into a low and spawn a rainfall event over the eastern third of the state?
Lets take a look
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Remaining dry for the coming 4 days as expected. One things models have done well is seeing this benign period of weather with above average temperatures continue into the weekend. The forecast becomes tricky for the southeast with a front riding through during Sunday and this followed by colder air in the middle and upper levels may trigger frequent showers and areas of rainfall over the east coast, more extensive over the northeast inland. I am not drawing it in yet but want to flag that. Otherwise the period is mostly dry for the inland until the end of next week with the approach of a trough and moisture. That may have showers and storms knocking on the western border by mid month.
Frost Risk - Thursday morning.
A low end frost risk over the east with the airmass becoming warmer and mixing out quicker so any frost really reserved for the GDR above 700m.
00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Well the pattern over the coming days is fixed, fine and settled weather right through to the weekend over the south and east, the west sees rain tonight and tomorrow clearing through Friday in time for the weekend. Over the weekend it now appears that the cold front coming through, likely to move through without a low forming on the front, as expected, the twists and turns continue for the eastern coastline, but once again expect more changes in the coming days surrounding this. Rule of thumb the most active weather from Sunday over the southeast and the east coast from Monday through Tuesday. The lack of a low pressure system may open the door for another system to pass through from WA into SA and the potential for this to tap into moisture and see rainfall chances come up for the southern and southeast inland later next week if not the weekend. The north, tending humid with showers and the odd thunderstorm about as the build up progresses.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Dry for the coming few days, ahead of that system for the southeast bringing a burst of showers and colder southwest winds, mainly for coastal areas of SA, VIC and TAS. The moisture is limited so the shower activity barely moving inland into NSW. Then next week the south turns dry and the rainfall moves back to the east coast with onshore winds. Then we watch proceedings out west and see whether that can bring rainfall back to much of SA, VIC and NSW at the end of the period.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days
Dry air continues to dominate the atmosphere over the nation, hence the lack of cloud cover at the moment. The moisture will be reintroduced into areas of the south with a weak system passing through Tasmania. Another shot of moisture will come across northern Australia via the easterly winds with that increasing the heat values. The humidity will then spread south and southeast via upper level winds with a trough helping to lift that into showers and thunderstorms over inland areas at the very end of the period.
I will have an update on the models once again at 9pm, looking at the all important rainfall data for the short and medium term.