NSW - THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN TODAY, THEN THE HEAT IS ON AHEAD OF THE NEXT RAINFALL

The weather is settling down as a high pressure system moves in this morning, that leads to a drier day with less wind about. The weather is expected to remain fairly settled for the coming day or so with the temperatures expected to increase over the course of Friday into Saturday.


Saturday could be quite hot over the northern inland of NSW with the chance of 30C temperatures over a wide area of inland QLD and northern NSW. A spring preview.


A very warm Saturday on the way with some locations exceeding 31C in NSW and mid to high 30s in western QLD!!


The air will filter down, through a northwest gale throughout the southeastern states. Damaging winds are possible about the southeast once again.


That sharp thermal gradient will lead to a band of rain forming along the front in southern NSW during the afternoon with the chance of some moderate falls possible on and west of the divide, we will have to keep watch on that.


The heat will clash with the colder air moving out of the west, add a bit of moisture and bang, you have a cloud band form with areas of rain. This is on Saturday



The showery weather will then contract further east during Sunday and clear away. The north should remain mostly dry for now during this period, but an area of showers may roll up the NSW ranges. We will watch the trends together over the coming days.


Another front is due to roll through the southeast once again during Monday with again the chance of moderate falls over southern inland NSW and west of the divide. The best of it again falling in the south. Ahead of the front it will be warmer once again with a gusty northwest flow developing. The potential for gales is there.


The pattern repeats again on Monday with the heat clashing with a secondary shot of cold air through NSW, which may aid the formation of a rain band over the northern inland and northeast of NSW and southern QLD. Watch this space.


Weather then trends more drier and stable into mid to late next week with a larger high pressure system coming in.


Lets look at this mornings models and discussion


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern begins to settle down over the southern states over the coming 5 days which is a fairly good forecast now, 2 more moderate waves to pass through the southeast, with more rainfall opportunities this weekend and again early next week. Ahead of the weekend system, clearly the warmest weather experienced so far this winter. The weather turns more showery during the weekend as mentioned along the front, the best of the rainfall through southern NSW through VIC where the front amplifies hitting the warm air. Then another front brings more showery weather through VIC on Monday through Tuesday, but the moisture continues to hover over the northern inland of NSW where another rain band may form. That is a sign of the pattern flip. Next week, high pressure will come in and settle all of the nation down as the westerly falls away, to finish the first week of August, and we may see the weather shift into the second week of August.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall over the next 5 days will be the most productive throughout the next 2 weeks across the region, which is a sign of that pattern flip underway. More high pressure does loom next week and into the second week of August, but we will be keeping an eye on moisture for the middle of the month as there are signals of inland rainfall building. The rainfall over the Northern Tablelands could exceed 30-50mm later in the weekend or early next week if the band of moisture gets stuck over the region.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Again very similar to GFS in keeping the bulk of the rainfall through the next 10 days in the first half of the period with the best of it falling over southern areas and along the GDR through to Alpine areas. The rain band Saturday and again on Monday will carry the risk of thunderstorms. The rainfall over the northern parts of NSW could surprise too, if the band of moisture stalls and can be lifted by a trough through the battle ground where the heat and cold air clash. The weather then will begin to clear from the west during mid next week as the high pressure ridge builds over the nation pushing the westerly wind belt south.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Note the rainfall is heaviest in the first half of the outlook, so two waves to come means that we are looking at a drier period coming up for much of inland areas early next week. Coastal areas in the south and now across the east could see the showers linger a little longer as the winds turn from southwest to southerly and then maybe a southeasterly develop, which would be the first time that has happened in about four weeks. We could see showers developing for coastal areas next week, but light falls if this does occur. This may aid the moisture being drawn in on those easterly winds for the eastern inland mid month.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies for the coming 16 days

Taking the modelling out a little further and you can see that the weather is starting to shift now with widespread moisture pooling over the northern inland parts of the nation. But another option is whether an easterly wave coming through the tropics can make it through to inland parts of QLD or the NT and be funneled south or southeast through the eastern inland. The system at the end of the run is what you would see during September if it verifies. But it is signaling that there is a pattern flip in the works.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies for the coming 10 days

The PW anomalies paint the picture of the pattern flip and you can see the impact of the high pressure ridging in over the nation, pushing the westerly wind belt south. That means we will see a more settled spell for many areas of Australia but that also means that the moisture begins to reset over the nation and we see more humid weather over the north and northwest. That is why we are starting to see rainfall printed out over inland areas of the NT and WA through parts of QLD. Watch this space.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall has lifted for the far southern parts of NSW in response to the two systems coming through over the next 4 days tapping into a deeper moisture suppply The rainfall alos lifting over the Northern Tablelands with the moisture becoming stationary over the northern inland and stacking up over the western slopes of the GDR. The wettest phase through the coming 10 days is the coming 5 days, where the weather dries out this time next week with a high moving in.

More weather coming up today with a look at the tropical weather and how that influences the rainfall and temperatures in the warmer seasons.

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