NSW - THE SETTLED SPELL CONTINUES

I love an easy forecast and I bet many of you are enjoying a quieter spell. Most of the state likely to remain in sinking air motion, dry air and that is leading to this beautiful spell. The weather is set to get quite warm to hot over the weekend and into next week as winds turn into the northeast to north.


For the east coast, the drier days will come to an end this weekend with a few showers developing in onshore southeast to easterly winds. Some of the showers may be moderate over the Northern Rivers and a few thundery showers about the southeast of the state over elevated terrain along that change may deliver a few moderate falls, as we saw about the ACT last night.


For the most part, it is a settled spell for a while.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not much change from last night and this morning with the light rainfall signal continuing for many inland areas if anything falls at all. Along the coast we will see light showers and drizzle develop as winds veer into the southeast and east with a new high ridging through the south of the nation. This will bring the next wave of light falls. A few thundery showers along the change tomorrow through Friday could bring one or two isolated moderate falls about the southeast. But overall, it is settled, quiet and dry for most of you.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

As per today, very isolated thunderstorms are possible about the southeast, ACT and the elevated terrain of the Southern Tablelands through to the VIC border. No severe weather is expected at this time.

DATA - Refer to video for more details


00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Once again, nothing of significant note weather wise in the coming 10 days with a dry airmass, stable air pattern and a fast flow pattern to the south of the nation contributing the variable weather conditions for southern Australia. The systems are too far south to make any great impact on the nation other than dry air and variation in the temperatures. Weather will turn more humid eventually over the north and east of the nation but in the absence of any large scale lifting mechanism, rainfall should remain fairly light and patchy for these areas when measured against seasonal expectations. I have used the CMC model run in the video tonight for you to compare this data set below with to see the differences and how the moving pieces impact your overall short and medium term outlook. We are getting to the stage now that changes, and possibly rapid changes, to the outlook are probable.

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The very dry airmass continues to dominate away from WA, where a deeper trough will lift that moisture into productive showers and storms. But most elsewhere, below average humidity values will result in below average rainfall totals throughout this period.

00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more details

00z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details

A closer look in - the weather is exceptionally quiet and dry for the coming 2 weeks across the region if this is right, with dry warm to hot days and not much rainfall or weather systems supportive of rainfall.

More details coming up from 8am EDT on Thursday. I will have another look at La Nina coming up tomorrow if not Friday.

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