NSW - THE HEAT IS BUILDING FRIDAY AHEAD OF RAIN - WHAT ABOUT THE CHANCES OF THAT LOW?

There have been some stirring in the models of the potential for a low to break out of a secondary system passing through the state during early next week, but before we get to that, we have a warm Friday with increasing cloud and windy weather, dust blowing over parts of the west as well.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is likely to carry a low confidence forecast due to the potential of low pressure forming along the secondary boundary later Sunday if not Monday, that brings a very cold blast of air through the south and east of the nation. The model agreement is not overly strong on this idea, but the fact it has been flagged within a 5 day window of the forecast means that it has to be factored in as a reasonable chance of occurring, where that forms is to be determined. For now I am keeping the rainfall neutral and not drawing that low pressure in on the rainfall charts. In the meantime, inland rainfall expected later tomorrow through Saturday, with the bulk of it falling over the southern inland and along the GDR of NSW. There are rumblings for rainfall to return as well, just outside of this period.

Northern NSW - This area is a low confidence forecast but with the data sets coming in I am not drawing in the heavier rainfall contours just yet.

Central West

Tristate

Southeast NSW

Southwest NSW

Farmers and Graziers Warning Monday-Wednesday

Bitterly cold southwesterly winds and a dry airmass early next week following a front will lead to below average temperatures, up to 12-15C from where they should be in some locations over inland NSW and southern QLD. The winds in combination with the showery weather Monday through Victoria will carry the highest risk, and this very high risk will translate into NSW on Tuesday before easing after frosty weather on Wednesday. This forecast will be adjusted so treat this as a heads up forecast and fingers crossed it moderates in coming days.

Frost Forecast Friday Morning

Low chance of frost over the GDR with no major complications, but next week if high pressure races in combination of the cold air, severe damaging frosts are possible early next week.

Dust Forecast Friday.

High winds overnight and into Friday morning will lift dust into the air and some of the spitty rainfall tomorrow could be dirty rainfall. Plus reduced visibility and poorer air quality is possible.

Thunderstorm Forecast - Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop through SA and VIC with a trough tapping into that moisture stream we have been talking about for about a week now. The thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated. Gusty winds reaching 100km/h will also lift dust and reduce visibility as per the chart above.

DATA


00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

The weather is largely unchanged from this morning, the high pressure is moving eastwards this evening finally making way for the trough and front to approach the southeast later tomorrow. That will be the focus of the wet weather for the weekend. Another front is expected next week over the southeast bringing bitterly cold late wintry weather for the south and east. Meanwhile a high to the west of Adelaide will keep the remainder of the nation dry and settled for most of next week. A slow clearing trend is expected for the southeast and it will take a while to recover from the cold temperatures of Monday. Moisture looks to return for the nation later next week into the weekend, as the SAM trends positive and the high pressure begins to sit further south and the prevailing winds shift into the east. Dry weather for the tropics too, perhaps the last burst of dry season weather for the season.

00z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The PW Anomalies continue to support a drier surge of air rolling through the southern and eastern inland of the nation bringing well below average temperatures and suppressing rainfall chances away from coastal areas. As we saw with the GFS and you can see below, the difference in the rainfall distribution and potential is connected to the moisture over the inland, does it get absorbed into the follow up system and lifted into rain areas over northern NSW and southern QLD or does it stay back over the west of the nation with no precipitation from this high PW value? Later in the period, moisture does return as the high shfits east and places the nation back into a prevailing easterly wind regime. Moisture may also be drawn into the mid latitude westerly winds and bring middle and upper level moisture back through southern Australia, possibly feeding troughs that could form in the eastern wind pattern over the nation.

00z Euro - Rainfall - Next 10 days

More notes on rainfall differences between the GFS and Euro for the eastern states can be found in the weather video.

00z GFS - Rainfall - Next 16 days

Latest Model Wrap on all the rainfall data coming up after 9pm tonight.








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