NSW - THE HEAT BUILDS BUT THEN RAIN SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE WEEKEND.

And temperatures will begin to decline dramatically through the weekend and into next week with a dry airmass moving north and clashing with the warm to hot air and creating a boundary across the state. This will be the focus of where the rainfall will be and as it moves north, it will be followed by dry air.


In the medium term, the forecast confidence remains LOW! The modelling is quite volatile which is normal when we move into spring, meaning your number will vary from run to run as I have been going on about like a broken record.


Latest details in the vlog below.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Again contained mainly to the event passing through during the weekend over the southeast inland as a front rolls up from the south and west with a colder airmass to follow. Some heavy falls are possible along this boundary, those being easier to identify as we go through the coming days. Then a colder drier airmass will sweep north as the front stalls out over inland areas. A high ridging in may become slow moving plunging the eastern seaboard into onshore winds, feeding residual cold air to see further showers develop next week in these onshore winds. The coverage will be determined by whether the troughs hangs up over the region. PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS AND TAKE THE TIME TO READ THE FORECAST NOTES TO UNDERSTAND THE RAINFALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.


00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pattern is unchanged from this morning and diverges with the GFS run tonight still so they are split with how the system evolves over the east and that impacts rainfall and temperature forecasts from run to run. The modelling will continue to be divergent for probably another day for the east in how the rainfall event evolves. For the remainder of the nation, there is good agreement of a large high taking full control and bringing colder southwest winds into next week for much of the nation. Then the west warms up ahead of another cold front mid to late next week. The east may get into showery air, dependent on the easterly wind regime and whether it becomes unstable which again, there is no clear guidance on this evolving.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall contained to the major rainfall event sweeping through from Friday through the early part of next week before skies clear over the inland from south to north over the inland. Showers may persist over the north coast into mid next week with a low forming offshore but more model rendering needed with this. Otherwise the majority of the outlook beyond the weekend is dry and settled.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

Dry air has been booted out of the interior and north today and this has lead to areas of afternoon convection with a few showers over the Gulf Of Carpentaria in response. That moisture is surging southwest tomorrow into the approaching long wave. The long wave itself introducing some modest moisture but it is mainly in the upper atmosphere. That will merge with the deeper moisture coming in from the north and the rainfall looks to increase over the southeast and eastern states, bypassing much of SA this time. Dry air surges behind the front and looks to be held over much of the nation next week under high pressure. Moisture may remain elevated about the east coast in onshore winds but forecast confidence remains low.

Finally I made these forecast observations last week in the lead up to this pattern shift back to rainfall potential about the areas on notice about moisture intrusion. I update this site frequently, and to make YOUR subscription sing, it is imperative YOU read the forecasts, watch the videos and explainers to get the best information. Looking at a chart or model data with no interpretation is not how weather works and will only cause disappointment.


Analysis of the models last Wednesday. Note where the moisture was forecast to be and where it has ended up today!

Another solution and analysis over a week ago - this was last Monday

Another solution which has been closer to the truth! This was last Tuesday!

So it pays to read and to keep across the details.


More later with a model rainfall wrap


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