NSW - THE GLOOM WILL LIFT THROUGH THE DAY.

The settled weather continues through to next week. So no complications as we track through the forecast period.


Next week the temperatures will rise dramatically.


After a fine and settled weekend, the northwest winds will start to develop and bring in that larger amount of warm and drier air. That will see temperatures rise freely Monday and Tuesday. Some areas could see their warmest weather since Autumn.


Temperature Anomalies Tuesday afternoon


Along the east coast, there may be some shower activity developing in northeast winds, but the falls mainly light and patchy for now. The better shower coverage may develop later next week.


Before then the weather is set to turn on Wednesday from the west, with a cold front still anticipated to run into the moisture that looks to build in the northeasterly flow. There could be a decent amount of thunderstorm activity as the battle ground develops over the state with a cooler westerly change moving in for Thursday.


A front approaching the east will link into moisture sitting through eastern and southeast parts of NSW

This is likely to be the battle ground for showers and thunderstorms to deliver moderate rainfall to the southeast again. This is typical weather for spring time. So watch this space, this could produce a decent amount of rainfall in quick time!

This time next week the weather should begin to settle back down.


Looking into the medium term, we have got more signals for major rainfall to develop.


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern is settled until early next week. There may be a shower or two along the east coast early next week with the moderate east or northeast winds which will develop as the high moves over VIC and NSW. The days are likely to get brighter through the southeast inland from Saturday. The weather over the east of the divide gorgeous at the moment and will continue through next week. The weather likely to warm up through SA, VIC and NSW ahead of a cold front that will arrive later Tuesday in SA and then move into VIC and NSW Wednesday. Light rainfall for SA with moderate falls possible about the southeast districts. The showers will then spread through VIC with mainly light falls. But as I alluded to last night, the front picks up moisture through southeast NSW and showers and thunderstorms break out as the system rolls through with moderate falls. This time next week, the weather clears throughout with new high pressure. As promised the medium term still has rainfall potential but it is not showing in the run this morning, but it will be back again.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

The rainfall should be light to moderate through the southeast states during Tuesday and Wednesday next week with the front passing through. It will likely run into better moisture over NSW where moderate to locally heavy falls of 25mm or more is possible in the southeast inland and about the western slopes if thunderstorms form. A few showers along the coast north of Newcastle will bring light falls about the region however, moisture from this flow will be brought inland via northeast winds hence the better rainfall odds in NSW. Not much expected inland of NSW and SA. We may see better rainfall potential for these regions in mid month.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The values are settled for the coming few days, the dry air being pushed inland then once again, onshore winds overrunning the dry air, so the moisture will redevelop for the eastern and southern inland ahead of a front next week. You can see that being lifted by the front, that science will play out before our eyes on Wednesday through the southeast. Then more dry air coming in, though the medium term, no consistency in where the rainfall will develop but the moisture is still on the modelling and that signal is unchanged.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro clears out the southeast states this weekend with brighter weather developing as the high moves through the east and then southeast of the nation by early next week. Warming up ahead of a front which again amplifies as it encounters better moisture east of SA and VIC. So NSW looks to get another burst of rainfall, especially the southeast inland. Then drying out again. The east coast could see light showers early next week and again at the end of the period.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall has remained largely unchanged from last night, that said it has brought up rainfall totals like GFS for the southeast of NSW and into Central NSW. We will keep an eye on that as it could become more widespread as we go through the weekend modelling. Then we have that drier signal for the end of next week with new high pressure throughout the southeast states. So the wettest days over the coming 10 days for SA, VIC and NSW will likely be Tuesday through Thursday.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The PW anomalies are unchanged for the coming period, but the moisture values could be deeper over mid next week with showery weather developing over the eastern inland, so that will be watched in the coming days. A spring preview for the east. In the west more moisture this weekend will likely collapse on approach to the east, but produce pockets of heavier rainfall along the west coast. The weather likely to become colder and drier behind a cold front early next week. Then the moisture looks to rebuild over northern parts of the state later next week as we get to mid month. There is no consistency in modelling at this time for the mid term.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall largely unchanged for most of the southeast but the numbers are picking up for the southeast of NSW and over the far northeast of VIC with moisture running into a cold front. That could bring a lively batch of showers and storms mid next week. There is a chance it could run up the western face of the GDR with moderate falls. Showers possible about the east coast with light falls early and later in the new week. Otherwise the far west is dry into SA and southern inland QLD.


I will have the climate drivers update later this morning and a look at La Nina chances.








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