Looking at a brighter trend in the weather for NSW after what has been fairly gloomy weather this week with low cloud and light winds and showers. If you were living from Canberra up to Katoomba through the Hunter into the northeast it has been brighter and more that weather is expected for the next 4 days statewide.
The low cloud is hanging up over southern NSW on the southern side of the ridge. You can clearly pick out where the ridge is with the clearer skies over the northern inland. Clear skies on the eastern side of the GDR too. The low cloud will keep temperatures milder tonight for southern and central parts of the state, but it will get cold over the northern and northwest.
We are still eyeing off the chance of showers increasing next week with the next wave of frontal weather weakening as it approaches the southeast and east. The weather likely to turn wet this time next week as that front lifts the modest amount of moisture over the eastern inland thanks to onshore winds.
The heat ahead of the system will play a part in adding more thermodynamics to the mix and this will lead to the chance of thunderstorms on the leading edge of the front as the system moves east.
Temperatures could be up to the low 30s for some parts of the northern and central inland of NSW next Tuesday.
Again in the medium term we have got the models tonight all over the place still with rainfall bouncing around over inland parts of the nation. There is little consistency in the forecast charts to pin down any specifics at this time.
Medium term model madness continues - this is for around 2 weeks from now.
Lets get right to it
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The high pressure system is slowly moving in from the west, ridging through the central parts of the nation before it settles in over the southeast inland by the end of the weekend. That clearing process over the south and southeast will take some time with the low level moisture hanging on for dear life. The weather will greatly improve over inland NSW and SA during Friday and then extend to northern VIC on Saturday before there is clearance throughout from Sunday. Next week we have a weakening cold front that is expected to move through the southeast, SA from Tuesday night, VIC from Wednesday morning and NSW Wednesday night. The moisture with the system should fall away to the southeast but the front itself will collide with moisture coming in from the northeast to easterly winds across the latter part of the weekend into next week, so the better rainfall will be out east. Then we see another high develop and move through quicker to the east. The weather drying out for the end of next week. There are more interesting signals in the medium term which is really all they are at this time, but as you can see there is some interesting signs for the medium term regarding follow up rainfall.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
The rainfall is basically done for inland NSW until next week. The showers over the southeast states is also done, the high pressure is now dominating the proceedings. That will see winds shift into the east and send in showers to the east coast, mainly north of Newcastle The next system arrives mid next week and that offers the next round of rainfall for the southeast states. The best of it falling in NSW. Then drying out until the more robust weather system that looks to develop in the medium term. That will bring the more widespread falls.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
PW anomalies paint the picture over the coming week, high pressure causing dry air to stay located over the eastern and southeast inland, but with onshore winds returning the moisture returns to the east coast. The weather is expected to become more humid over northern Australia, this offering the next surge of moisture for rainfall to develop over much of inland Australia. But where remains to be the question. I have outlined more on that in my medium term moisture watch post at the top of the blog front page.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The pattern relatively settled for the coming 5 days with the weather likely to warm up over the weekend and into next week. The weather could become hot for some locations next Tuesday and Wednesday for inland areas of NSW ahead of a front that will bring a burst of rainfall and storms to southern and central areas at this time. It could extend further north up the GDR but will monitor. The medium term looks like it wants to bring the rainfall through QLD rather than Central Australia as per GFS.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Dry weather until next week, there may be areas of drizzle tomorrow but really not much. Then next week the rainfall is set to break out during Tuesday into Wednesday with moderate falls for the western slopes in the southeast. Then that clears through. Showers off and on for the coastal fringe north of Newcastle, may start to increase from later next week into the following weekend but it is still low confidence.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
The difference in modelling continues with the Euro keeping the bulk of moisture that breaks out into rainfall over the eastern inland as opposed to the west, but the Euro does have moisture streaming in from the west as well with moderate falls developing over WA towards the end of the run. But this will likely change once again
This the GFS in the medium term nationally - again I just want to point out this will change in the next run, but I show this to remind people that more wet weather is developing in the second half of August. Hopefully there can be more consistency into the weekend on this next wave of weather.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Relatively dry for the coming 5 days for the region but the rainfall comes back with that weakening front during the middle of next week, that could produce some surprise falls still over the southeast inland with the chance of thunderstorms. A bit like last system that brought those hot temperatures, this system is dragging that warm to hot air down, mixing in with moisture and colder air riding in from the west could see a good supply of thunderstorms over NSW.
The climate drivers outlook is updated tomorrow with a look at the La Nina chances.