NSW - STORMS TO INCREASE SATURDAY BEFORE MORE STORMS NEXT WEEK IN THE EAST. DRY WEST.

No change to the guidance, with the upper high over the western interior of the state continuing to drive fine weather with dry air trapped under the upper high through much of this week.


The east and north is where the weather is expected to shake and bake throughout the weekend and once again next week with multiple troughs rotating through the state over the course of the next week, but only becoming active once they find moisture hanging about the northern and eastern regions.


Better signs for rainfall west of the divide exists from later this month into November as we transition warmer throughout the nation during this time.


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall as pointed out most of this week continues to be scattered and uneven under the convective nature of the rainfall. Falls will be heavy in pockets and lighter down the road. It is that time of year. There will be a few rounds of storms throughout the period. Clearly tomorrow with a trough passing through. Another round of strong to severe storms over northeast districts during early next week and once again later next week into the following weekend. The western and southern inland areas looking dry and warm for now.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are likely to turn severe once again during Saturday with all modes of severe weather possible. Thunderstorms could turn dangerous over parts of northeast NSW with more dynamic forcing, supportive upper level winds for robust development and deep moisture in place. The storms through southern areas will likely remain non severe, though a southerly change moving up the NSW coast may bring about a batch of strong storms with gusty winds and small hail.

Large Hail Risk Saturday

Large hail is a significant risk once again over the northeast but also about the Central and Northern inland areas of the state. Giant hail is possible about the northeast areas closer to the QLD border and down to about the Mid North Coast. Hail also a chance with a southerly change running up the NSW coast, but large hail is considered low.

Tornado Risk Saturday

Low risk of a tornado over the northeast and central parts of the state with favourable upper level conditions to support supercell thunderstorms

Damaging Winds Risk Saturday

Damaging straight line winds high chance throughout the northern and northeast inland of the state. Also the chance of damaging winds with thunderstorms over the coastal areas east of Canberra through to the Blue Mountains with a southerly/easterly change.

Flash Flood Risk Saturday

Flash flooding a high risk with strong to severe storms over northeast and eastern parts of the state as storms fire afternoon and evening. Intensive rainfall is expected with supercell thunderstorms.

DATA - Refer to video for more analysis


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The model guidance as pointed at multiple times today is still low confidence for the nation's east and southeast with poor guidance continuing throughout the model spread. Though that said the confidence of higher impact severe weather remains over southeast QLD and northeast NSW and the wettest weather is likely to be over the tropics. For the west of the nation a cooler change moves through with showers and another run of below average temperatures. For SA, VIC and inland NSW, the weather remaining mostly dry for now with above average temperatures returning.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW anomalies shows the tropics remaining the focus for rainfall during this period.. Dry air will be trapped over the eastern inland of the nation which will keep skies dry for now with troughs passing through in dry fashion from SA through NSW and VIC. The east coast will see showers from time to time with thunderstorms as troughs lifts the moisture that is on the northern edge of the upper high and ridge, that guidance seems fair at this point, but other models are pushing that ridge off quicker, some keep it in place, which then changes the forecast run to run for NSW, VIC and SA. The west will see cooler drier southwest to southerly winds next week, though moisture from the north and northeast will be transported southwest during the outlook bringing back rainfall chances to the interior. There could be above average rainfall with the trough amplifying through the Bight mid next week.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

The Euro is still printing out more convective rainfall for much of the nation, which is why you are seeing a patchwork of rainfall rather those sweeping bands which are to the south of the nation with frontal weather and monsoonal weather to the north of Australia. So no major trigger for widespread concentrated rainfall at this stage. Repeating that this is typical for this time of year as the nation warms and we say goodbye to the westerly wind regime to the south and welcome the tropical easterly winds over northern and eastern Australia and inland troughs. For now your rainfall will vary over much of the nation from place to place and it will chop and change from run to run as there is little skill in forecasting exactly what you get ahead of time in random warm airmass thunderstorm activity. We have seen that in the GFS today and the Euro tonight.


Keep an eye on the weather over the southeast and eastern seaboard and the numbers coming up over inland areas with the change passing from SA through VIC and into NSW.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more details

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

Refer to harvest outlook for more details

As mentioned I will be having my first morning off in 4 months tomorrow so the next update will be tomorrow afternoon. Have a great Friday night.



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