The weather is variable with a fast flow pattern to the south of the nation continuing, the northern most aspects of troughs and fronts providing more dynamic wind shear to produce robust thunderstorm activity from time to time as we are seeing today. Also allowing for temperatures to soar ahead of these troughs and frontal weather for large parts of the state.

Once we lose the fast flow pattern through the Southern Ocean, this will allow the easterly winds to develop for QLD and NSW, this sending moisture back inland and any trough that develops through the region will be able to tap into the moisture and your coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely increase as we track through towards Christmas.

The period leading into New Years looks quite unsettled and the potential for more widespread rainfall, heavy falls and flooding risks is increasing a little each day.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains patchy and uneven in distribution, and while we have thunderstorms about this evening in a broad risk area, many are dry and a few have been clobbered by heavy falls. This will develop again during over the weekend with the coverage along that trough and front perhaps more widespread through central and northern areas. This trough will likely stall out over the northeast during early next week with humid air remaining on and north/east of the trough producing showers and thunderstorms. To the south and west of the trough, conditions are remaining dry for a few days next week. Once the high to the southeast moves further away and sends the winds into the northeast, then the moisture and instability will fold over the state by Christmas with a higher chance of rainfall about.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the afternoon and evening with some of the storms turning severe over the central and northern inland areas of the state. Storms may be gusty with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding in some locations but the overall threat is not widespread.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

The wind shear aloft is supportive of damaging straight line winds on and to the east of the trough as it meanders through the state. The overall threat is not especially high.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening will turn more multicellular about the Hunter and through the Northern Tablelands which may lead to locally heavy rainfall.

DATA - More details in the video above.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More on the day by day breakdown in the video. This is the least likely outcome out of the modelling this evening, but point to it as to highlight the volatility in the modelling and how quickly it can change and I will keep on the GFS to show you this in the coming days.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

I am showing you this as a point of reference to the least likely outcome with the drier air persisting, which I do not support. I will have more details on the moisture and rainfall coming up from 9pm EDT. For those in northern and eastern Australia, pay attention to the forecasts because they will change rapidly in coming days and likely turning very wet.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in - way too dry but placemark this for future reference in the coming days. Low chance of occurring. Refer to the rainfall update coming up at 9pm for more details.

More after 9pm EDT.

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