NSW - STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY - THE EAST SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER FOR THE INLAND.

Not much change to the overall weather pattern with troughing over the northeast bringing more showers and thunderstorms Friday, while dry weather to continue for the inland as a high pressure ridge develops and strengthens over the Bight.


The pattern is slack so there won't be a lot of change in the weather for the coming 3 to 4 days. Temperatures will begin to increase throughout next week, especially west of the divide, with moisture and humidity building over northern parts of the nation. That could lead to showers and thunderstorms developing for northern areas later in the period as we end the month.


It is not unusual to see a lull in conditions as we have a shift to warmer weather. This period is usually followed by an increase in rainfall and high humidity.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be limited over the western inland which has been well forecast this week and that will continue for at least another 7 days as ridging continues to dominate. The rainfall chances are higher over the eastern side of the GDR with more troughs to work through and tap into moist air, showers and thunderstorms expected, with the higher rainfall odds expected for the northeast third of the state and then over the northern border with QLD later next week. There is some chance of showers and thunderstorms developing state wide, but the better chances may be over northern and eastern areas for now, but the overall confidence in the forecast data is not especially high.

The storms will bring the wettest weather to the state over the northeast of NSW. Your number will vary.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to fire up again during Friday afternoon, the risk extending further south again through the northeast inland. Some of the storms turning severe, mainly over the GDR and points east where greater forcing via the convergent winds will be available. All modes of severe weather once again a risk. Ahead of the cold front over VIC, there may be a few rumbles of thunder but no severe weather is expected here.

Large Hail Risk Friday

A modest risk of large hail once again with stand alone cells during the afternoon and evening. Hail size of 3-5cm possible with the strongest storms, mainly over southeast inland QLD may drift over northeast NSW during the afternoon and evening.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding increasing during Friday afternoon and evening, thanks to the slow movement of thunderstorms throughout the region. Upper level winds are slack so storm motion is snail pace.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging outflow winds from heavy thunderstorms is modest over the region, but more likely over the northeast inland and closer to the QLD border.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern again largely unchanged from this morning, which is a good thing in terms of forecasting, however the position, scale and intensity of the elements on the board are the features that determine who gets how hot and how wet in the coming week or so. So the forecast as mentioned in the rainfall forecasts and video, it is a low confidence forecast. For now we have a cold front passing through southeast states during Friday with showers with light falls mainly. Showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on for much of this outlook for northeast NSW and parts of inland QLD. Severe thunderstorms are possible for SE QLD early next week with all modes of severe weather. Next week we watch a sharp upper trough moving through WA and that will bring more of a temperature drop than rainfall. It will help to hook into moisture over the tropics and drag it south and southeastwards towards SA and then the southeast states later next week. Ahead of it, warm to hot for much of southern and eastern Australia before a thundery change works it's way through. How wet that system is, remains to be seen. The weather over the north becoming quite unsettled with a larger scale storm outbreak for the NT and into parts of WA during the course of the next week with above average rainfall, bringing down the horrendous high heat.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Not a lot of change from this morning, but the moisture is now becoming very deep through the outlook period through northern and eastern Australia, with numerous to extensive showers and thunderstorms over much of the NT extending through to QLD and west into WA. This moisture field will remain there until the ridging over the southeast breaks down and you will note that moisture begins to surge south and southeast next week lifting the rainfall chances for the dry southeast and eastern inland. The west seeing relatively seasonal values and the moisture remaining trapped over QLD and northern NSW with a trough meandering west and then east. The moisture over northern Australia is well above average for this time of year and it will visit the southern states into November.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Blotchy rainfall throughout the nation indicates convective rainfall. The western coast looks dry but most areas of the nation should have a shower or thunderstorm risk during the coming 10 days.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more - the ensemble data is way more useful - more on that tonight.

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to the video for more

More details on the rainfall coming up at 9pm EDT and tomorrow is the Harvest Update for the coming 6 weeks which looks more into November.




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