NSW - STORMS ARE BACK FOR THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW - WARMING UP ELSEWHERE - MORE STORMS FRIDAY.

A stormy period looks to unfold over the northeast tomorrow and then again mid to late week from the west, heralding a very wet look as we get closer to November.


Lets take a look at the short and medium term.

FORECAST


Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be lean to around mid to late week away from the northeast which will see scattered showers and thunderstorms from tomorrow before clearing. A couple of settled days and then more showers and thunderstorms come back from the west around Thursday and then linger for a number of days. The medium term is much wetter than what is being shown here, with some models really going off the charts in terms of humidity and rainfall potential. A heads up for those not wanting rain or humidity, because it could be disruptive to harvest. Also regional charts will return at some point this week once confidence in rainfall is clearer.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to fire up again over the northeast third of NSW, especially closer to the QLD border. Thunderstorms may turn severe over the northeast with large hail and damaging winds the main concern. The focus should lift out of the state by the end of the day with the most active weather expected through QLD.

Large Hail Risk Monday

Large hail is expected to feature with the larger storm clusters through the afternoon and evening. The most likely time is between 2-7pm before the focus shifts north. The greatest risk is in that northeast pocket.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

The flash flood risk is not especially high given the storms will be moving at pace, however some of the stronger storm clusters or if storms train over the same area for a period, may lead to brief flash flooding.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

The damaging wind threat is fairly high given the wind profile aloft. Stronger storms will be able to tap into this strong upper level wind and mix it to the surface. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but it is considered very low.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more - Note as per the video the similar spread of moisture to GFS.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more - the ensemble data is wetter than this for most of the north, central and east.

A closer look in - convective rainfall and the GFS and CMC are much wetter.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more

More details coming up a little later.

57 views0 comments