NSW - STILL EYEING OFF THAT WARMER SPELL LATER THIS WEEK THEN RAIN DEVELOPING

The weather is largely unchanged for the coming week, we have noted this pattern from two weeks ago, so lets take a look at the weather for the week ahead.


The cloud has increased with a weak front passing through to the south overnight with that cloud expected to decrease in the coming day or so as another centre of high pressure comes in from the west. The cloud will move into the southern inland this afternoon and extend further north but most of the drizzle or mizzle will be restricted to the south and slopes during this evening.

The weather is expected to warm up from mid week, we have got the first front starting to move in over SA and the Bight, that will kick the high out further east. For the east coast, the winds will veer into the east or northeast seeing a period of showers developing for parts of the coast.


The front coming over SA will slip away to the southeast and this will drag in warmer air with the majority of the showers further south later this week, though moisture values this morning have improved and we could see showers developing now later this week, this system looks to carry more moisture now.


We are warming up Thursday and Friday with the grass likely to start growing before your eyes in the coming weeks as the ground temperature starts to recover as the nation warms.

A stronger front on Saturday may bring another burst of showers through southern inland areas with a low developing over the BIght which could bring more widespread showers to the southeast and southern inland. That system could bring more widespread rainfall than what is being indicated.


Then a stronger system expected to sweep through the state during early next week with more widespread rainfall expected, the modelling overnight had a major rainfall event over SW WA this morning a strong set of cold fronts for the east.



12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern again largely set for this week, with most of the inland dry under dry air as the the high pressure takes full control. The weather will start to shift for the east coast later this week with a few showers developing as the east or northeast flow develops with the high moving towards NZ. The first in a series of fronts will sweep the southwest of the nation, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to WA, that front moving onto SA during Thursday seeing temperatures rise well above the average during the latter stages of this week. A second stronger front is expected to move over the southwest on Thursday into Friday and that front sweeping through the southern states during this weekend with areas of rain or showers with some thunder about. Light to moderate rainfall. Then we have that larger scale system developing during early next week with again the modelling chopping and changing the scale and speed of the system BUT it still has it now and all models see the system, just a matter of settling on a solution, which I will talk about more later this morning.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Not much on offer for the coming 5 days, a few drizzly spits over the southeast and east coast. The wettest part of the nation this week will be over the SWLD with the fronts starting to stand up and over western TAS where the showery weather will continue for most of this week. Another pocket of wet weather can be found under the trade winds over FNQ. Then the wet weather begins to spread out over SA, VIC and NSW later this week into the weekend with light falls inland, moderate along the coast. A stronger system is expected to develop during early next week with more widespread rainfall opportunities. I will have more on this system later this morning.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

PW Values are largely unchanged for the coming 10 days, though values ahead of the system coming in on Friday and Saturday over the southeast states could see showers increase a little more than what is being indicated right now. The moisture over the eastern seaboard is expected to filter inland with the northeast to easterly winds freshening. That will help feed the system moving in early next week over SA and Central Australia with more widespread cloud and rainfall possible in about a week's time. The models diverge on what happens after this with the Euro keeping the moisture in place for the end of the month, the GFS today sweeps the moisture out. They swap back and forth...that means we will have to wait further for guidance on the system for next week.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Very similar to GFS with no real change in the conditions for the week ahead so the forecast you have received is likely to remain unchanged. The only area of difference is the deeper moisture coming through on the front passing out of WA through SA into the southeast states later this week, which could see more cloud and the showers extend inland to southern NSW. That may persist into Saturday as well as the moisture stays in place. This model also continues to support the rainfall event next week.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall light on for the southeast this week, showers increasing over the southwest of the nation with moderate falls from mid week, the moderate rainfall is expected to be found over western TAS and the FNQ coast. The showers increasing over the southeast is with two fronts, one on Friday and another due on Saturday with light falls inland though heavier falls are expected further inland with a milder change. Next week, we can see the low pressure befalling through the southeast states with moisture limited, that is the difference between the GFS and Euro hence why rainfall coverage is less.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The PW values are largely unchanged for the week, for areas over WA, keeping an eye on the moisture sweeping in from the northwest via the Indian Ocean, that may seed the system coming into the southeast. You can see some cloud already over inland parts of the nation associated with higher PW values this morning. That may sit in place until the front picks it up during the latter parts of this week bringing more widespread rainfall. Another front over the weekend comes with another shot of average moisture levels for southern Australia with scattered showers. Moisture over the east coast will run across the north of the country, with two waves to watch during the weekend into next week, at this stage the moisture is out of phase with the long wave trough that kicks off a larger scale system due in early next week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is unchanged from overnight, perhaps a little more rainfall is expected to come through this weekend with the second front, the moisture has increased a little in the global modelling this morning, but how much makes it over the inland remains to be seen, but certainly some moderate falls further south over VIC and that may creep into the southeast inland. Then we see that stronger system developing this time next week and due to the flipping and flopping in the modelling, I will keep the forecast unchanged, BUT have more details on this event later this morning. That system this time next week will have the most widespread rainfall opportunities coming through NSW.


I will have a two week forecast later this morning with a detailed look at the system lurking next week and we will take a trip to the Indian Ocean to see what is stirring for the end of the month into September.



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