The weather pattern is shifting further for the east and southeast giving the inland of the nation, including NSW, a chance to dry out and return to typical Summer weather for a spell.

So for now, finally a chance to breathe over inland regions, watching the residual flooding recede and a chance to warm up too, with seasonal values, but along the east coast, onshore winds will lead to showery periods with cooler than normal weather but humidity values won't be as out of control as of recent weeks.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is likely to remain coastal from tomorrow with the trough lifting out and drier air moving through the inland. With the southeast to easterly flow from Thursday through the weekend, being nearer to the ridge, the rainfall is likely to remain lighter than further north through QLD. Once the flow turns into the east and then northeast later in the weekend into next week, then we will see the shower coverage increase with a deeper moisture and warmer flow passing into areas on and east of the divide. Some areas could see locally heavy rainfall early to mid next week. At this stage the troughs are expected to be further offshore the east coast leading to the more widespread heavier rainfall opportunities away from the region for now but this could still change. Inland areas expected very little rainfall for a while with a pattern flip which is expected after such a long run of high humidity and record rainfall.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will clear north and east through NSW during the day as a trough moves steadily towards the QLD border and off the east coast. Thunderstorms may be severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main concern in the very high moisture content.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Thunderstorms have a very high risk of producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding through the far northeast of NSW during the day with the focus shifting north and east through the afternoon.

DATA - Refer to video for further analysis and the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The latest guidance as mentioned is low confidence, this is too dry out the south and central interior, which is a very high chance of occurring. The wet weather moves to the north and east of the nation with prevailing onshore winds driving the wet weather and troughs over the east and north, driving the heavier rainfall. The wettest part of the nation will be over the Top End and Cape York as well as parts of the NSW and QLD coasts. The weather warming up and remaining dry into next week over WA, SA, VIC and TAS. A gorgeous weekend on the way for many areas with a chance to dry out with low humidity and warming temperatures. The weather will start to turn over WA into the new week with a rare Summer front clipping the southern coast with a few showers and brisk southwest winds. The monsoon trough up north may continue to drive tropical downpours, but also may form tropical depressions over the north of WA, NT and QLD. So will be watching closely as this may support wet weather returning to large parts of the nation as we edge into the second half of the month.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture is continuing to move northwards with the monsoon trough being pushed north through to the tropics. A high over the south is sending that drier southerly flow through the south, central and eastern inland of the nation with that likely to be with us for about a week so low rainfall and thunderstorm coverage. The weather over the north will likely remain the most active across the nation. The wildcard system to watch in the short term will be the moisture coming in ahead of change over southern Australia next week and whether that feeds off moisture as it runs into the northeast to easterly flow over the east as well.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information - this is the more likely solution - I think there will be influence from the northern tropics which look to be active.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More details coming up from 8am EDT.

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