Typical settled February weather for a good part of the next 10 days for the state with the ridge holding firm, promoting dry stable air across inland areas of the state. The showers are expected to continue for parts of the coast for the next day or so but even along the coast, hot and dry weather may develop for the end of the week into the weekend before the next easterly change emerges.

So for the first time in a long time, it is quiet and we are generally storm free for the state which is welcome. A few showers along the coast may spit out some thunder but overall there is no severe weather opportunities at this time.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall very lean for inland areas so it is an easy forecast, if you are in the far west, dry for the week ahead. If you are living near to the GDR and along the GDR, a few showers and thunderstorms may emerge this weekend near a slow moving trough. Along and to the east of the GDR is expected to see passing showers in the short term and then again from the weekend with light falls overall on most days leading to moderate accumulation. Otherwise this looks to be the driest week of Summer so far for NSW.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the daily breakdown in the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern once again largely unchanged from this morning so the persistence forecast continues. You can catch more in the daily breakdown, but at this stage the low confidence forecast strap continues.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The dry airmass looks set to reign for the coming week at least before we see conditions slowly recover over northern and western Australia and this spreads east and southeast in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the forecast is of low confidence and I cannot stress anything beyond about the 7 day mark is likely to change.

More details coming up from 8am EDT. The weather remains very quiet so until there are themes in the medium term that are gathering pace around rainfall, I will introduce the rainfall and model posts. For now there is too much divergence. Tomorrow is Climate Update Tuesday. So look out for that.

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