NSW - SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE WEST INLAND - EASING ON COAST. COLD BLAST NEXT WEEK

The weather has been mixed once Again today throughout the state, with scattered light rainfall over the northern inland with some local thunder. A few showers over the far southwest with increased high clouds and relatively fine weather through the southeast and ACT with increasing clouds.


One thing is general, is that the weather is mild and much warmer than normal for many areas, thanks in part to the higher humidity values and warmer air being drawn in ahead of the decaying front over the southeast states.


Cloudy skies will continue to appear Thursday and Friday with scattered showers over the inland but not all-day rainfall is expected and the weather remaining warmer than normal. The overnights also starting to become warmer too with the increased cloud cover.


Windy weather will develop across the weekend and as outlined yesterday and again this morning, the chance of severe weather via damaging winds will feature for many areas as a strong cold front move throughout the state. Strong to gale force winds will persist into early next week as well.


A band of rain and thunderstorms will move into the west of the state during Sunday afternoon and rapidly progress across the state into Monday with a bitterly cold westerly wind regime to follow. Showers will likely remain gusty with wintry mix involved, so hail and thunder with snowfalls above 700m possible. So really a nice blast of cold air to end the season and to kick off Winter.


Conditions will begin to ease over the state during this time next week, but with increasing settled skies, that will lead to frosts increasing in coverage and possibly turning severe during the end of next week.


Some modelling is suggesting another front with rain may move in from later next week but will keep watching trends and I am not drawing that in on the charts just yet due to low confidence.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be patchy in coverage over the state, with light falls expected over the inland over the coming 2 days with many areas seeing less than 5mm and a few missing out completely. The rainfall along the coast will begin to ease from tomorrow and clear by Friday with drier air moving in from the northwest flow that will develop ahead of the next cold front approaching this weekend. The next band of rain will likely move into the west of the state from Sunday with moderate falls possible. Some thunderstorms are also possible about the southern and southeast interior with moderate to heavy falls possible with these, especially along the western slopes. The rainfall will reach the coast, but the falls patchy and light and blasting offshore. Showers will continue across the state Monday and Tuesday with the southwest to westerly winds wrapping around the low that forms offshore Victoria. Some of these wintry, with local hail and thunder and snowfalls developing over Alpine areas with moderate falls and snow showers above 700m along the Divide. Rainfall eases over the inland from Tuesday night and clears during Wednesday over the south with new high pressure coming in. Another front may move in later next week with a moisture surge coming in from the northwest but the agreement on this is rather poor.

Certainly, looking at a nice clump of showers on the coast tonight and tomorrow before conditions ease in the coming 36hrs. The weather is forecast to dry out east of the ranges and become colder and wetter on and west of the divide from Sunday night.

Rainfall begins to increase from Sunday afternoon with moderate to heavy falls possible overnight into Monday before showery periods continue into mid week before clearing over the state.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds - Sunday to Wednesday

With the system rolling into well above average temperatures with some moisture, this will allow a very tight thermal gradient developing, with supports strong to gale force northerly winds developing ahead of the feature. So, expect to see land gale warnings for parts of SA, VIC and NSW through to the ACT and across much of TAS.

Farmers and Graziers - Sunday to Wednesday

Once the front passes through, we will see a fierce cold airmass with gale force westerly winds over much of the southeast. Widespread showers, hail and thunder is forecast and snowfalls down to low levels.

Snow Forecast - Monday to Wednesday

Snowfalls could fall down to about 500m in VIC and through NSW the snowline could come down to about 700m, so that would bring the first flurries of the year to the Northern, Central and Southern Tablelands and possibly around the ACT and Canberra. This will likely be the first event to bring snowfalls to the Alpine Areas and setting hopefully a good start to the ski season for resorts in the region.

Frost Risk - Tuesday through Friday

The airmass begins to warm from this time next week with the new high-pressure ridge moving through, but we have to be on the watch for severe frosts developing over the southeast. Certainly, looking at the coldest mornings of the year for these areas. Possibly a freeze for parts of the ACT and points south towards the VIC border (temperatures sustained below -5C)

MEDIUM TERM

June 1st-8th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Still seeing models supporting moisture being drawn from the Indian Ocean and propelled across the nation from northwest to southeast. Some of the heavier rainfall will be found back over NW WA with the in feed running through persistently through this period. With showery weather and moving into a new month, the averages start to shift now into June, so drier than normal weather is forecast over the east coast with westerly winds dominating next week with the rainfall mainly on and west of the divide and over the southeast. Possibly a heavier rainfall event over the SWLD.

Temperature Anomalies

The much colder signal is forecast to emerge across much of the nation and this is now the lag impact of the cold outbreak that moves through early next week and continues to linger into the end of next week. There is a chance of a rain event coming through the northwest to the southeast of the country with those suppressing temperatures during the daytime. Warmer than normal weather continues over the north though humidity values will move to below average thresholds.

DATA - More context can be found in the video attached to this post and to track the daily breakdown for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The surface pressure pattern is becoming more wavy and fast flow, which is good for bringing rainfall back to southern and southeast Australia and drier weather to the east coast, which has been screaming out for a few drier and brighter weeks. This looks possible for the post part over the coming period. There are severe weather issues which I touch on in the video and above for the southeast and southern areas of the nation. The major cold outbreak across the southeast will have far ranging impacts across for eastern and northern Australia, with drier and cooler air spreading right through the country.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values may look as high as previous weeks which is normal, considering we are moving into the coldest part of the year, the values are reduced, however values over northern and northwest areas of the nation are elevated and above average and this will infiltrate the jet stream leading to more rainfall chances spreading throughout the country. Certainly, the GFS showing about 3 events spreading throughout the country, but the latter 2 remain to be seen and will have more information on that throughout the weekend and into next week.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - looking more traditional for this time of year, drier weather for the east coast in the lee of the range and wetter weather stacking up on and west of the divide with a month's worth of rainfall for many if this is right, possibly above average in areas exposed to that west to southwesterly regime. It will come down to timing of cold fronts in relationship to the moisture spreading through the jet stream. So, I expect numbers to jump around.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, and see how we are looking with regards to the moisture spreading through the jet stream and being picked up by cold fronts racing through the south of the nation, meaning we see the first major winter rainfall spread of the season.


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