NSW - SHOWERS EASING OVERNIGHT, DRYING OUT THURSDAY - HOT SATURDAY AHEAD OF MORE RAINFALL.

The seasonal weather pattern continues for parts of NSW in line with the wavy flow pattern to the south of Australia. Gusty winds and showers about the southern and central inland tonight with areas of light rain about the northwest slopes and tablelands, will gradually ease as a high pressure system begins to move in from the west. There is the chance of a thunderstorm with hail over the southern inland this evening with gusty winds.


Thursday looks mostly dry and calm with plenty of sunshine developing, the same applies to Friday, but we do have frost returning to part of the inland and that could be severe for some southern and central inland parts of NSW.


But then the temperatures go another direction during Saturday, after a cold start we see temperatures soar into the low 30s in some parts of northern and northwest NSW and temperatures into the mid 20s over the central west and grading towards 20 degrees for those over the southern inland. Clearly the warmest day of the season so far with a gusty northerly wind.


Above average temperatures are coming Saturday!


The weather then turns during Saturday afternoon and evening over southern inland areas with a cold front and trough coming into the southern part of the state with the moisture in feed helping to initiate areas of rain. A few thunderstorms also possible along the gusty westerly change. Rainfall totals light to moderate for the most part, but they could be heavier if more moisture gets involved so will keep watch on that trend.


The weather then clears up by Sunday afternoon throughout with another high pressure system coming in, fine weather for Monday next week and warming up once again, with temperatures similar to the Saturday event.


Then another strong cold front approaches from the west, bringing yet another band of rain and a few thunderstorms as well along with a colder westerly change.


The weather then clears during this time next week with a much larger high pressure system


Lets look at modelling


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The latest GFS shows the westerly wind regime will be continuing the next five days with the and chairman of some easing in that passion come this time next week. The high-pressure system coming in mid next week could see conditions ease for the south-eastern states. Meanwhile the most active weather is still anticipated for WA over the coming three days with severe weather likely as the long wave trough peaks throughout the region. For the south-eastern states the next front will drag in some very warm air on Saturday before a gusty change with rain and storms developing through parts of Victoria and Southern NSW. There will be lighter falls for Southern South Australia. The weather clears on Sunday into early next week ahead of yet another system that will emerge from the Southern Ocean to bring another warm day ahead of more rainfall this time next week for the southeast. If you are living over the parts of the north well it's more of the same with dry conditions and hot temperatures, that extends into QLD.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall is largely unchanged for the next five to seven days however for NSW and northern Victoria we are going to be looking at that weekend system a little more closely over the coming 24 hours, as it looks like moisture is returning to this system and it's going to be interacting with a tight thermal gradient which will support the development of a rain band if it all comes together. The next system is due in early next week and a very similar setup could occur with another band of rain developing for southern NSW and northern Vic. The remainder of NSW looks to get light rainfall from both systems, but the best of the rainfall will be the further South you are. Conditions clear by this time next week with new high pressure full stop

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The latest GFS shows the westerly wind regime will be continuing the next five days with the and chairman of some easing in that passion come this time next week. The high-pressure system coming in mid next week could see conditions ease for the south-eastern states. Meanwhile the most active weather is still anticipated for WA over the coming three days with severe weather likely as the long wave trough peaks throughout the region. For the south-eastern states the next front will drag in some very warm air on Saturday before a gusty change with rain and storms developing through parts of Victoria and Southern NSW. There will be lighter falls for Southern South Australia. The weather clears on Sunday into early next week ahead of yet another system that will emerge from the Southern Ocean to bring another warm day ahead of more rainfall this time next week for the southeast. If you are living over the parts of the north well it's more of the same with dry conditions and hot temperatures, that extends into QLD.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall is largely unchanged for the next five to seven days however for NSW and northern Victoria we are going to be looking at that weekend system a little more closely over the coming 24 hours, as it looks like moisture is returning to this system and it's going to be interacting with a tight thermal gradient which will support the development of a rainband if it all comes together. The next system is due in early next week and a very similar setup could occur with another band of rain developing for southern NSW and northern Vic. The remainder of NSW looks to get light rainfall from both systems, but the best of the rainfall will be the further South you are. Conditions clear by this time next week with new high pressure full stop

00z Euro Precipitable Water for the coming 10 days

The sequence that plays out over the west of the nation at the end of the first week of August and into the second week of August is the pattern flip I have been talking about, now it won't look quite like this but notice the high pressure is the dominant force for a number of days later in the outlook, which is enough to shift conditions

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall for the next 10 days is connected to two major frontal passages through the southeast with moisture streaming in from the northwest and coupled with greater thermodynamics - this will support some chance of a rainband, mainly for southern NSW and northern and eastern VIC. The rainfall rule continues, that the further south you are, the more rainfall you will see. The further north you, the less rainfall you will see. Clearly this is a result of the westerly wind belt starting to move south. Next week high pressure will move in from the west and clear out the southeast with a few fine days.

More weather details to come.




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