NSW - SHOWERS EASE FOR THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL BE BACK OFF AND ON THIS WEEK.

The fast flow pattern continues to dominate the weather pattern over the coming week to 10 days, with a few strong fronts to come through the southeast, the northern parts of those fronts will likely whip through the south of NSW with moisture values also increasing the risk of rainfall for the inland areas west of the divide through central and southern areas of the state.


The more widespread rainfall for NSW will be later this week as a stronger front arrives and that will contain a deeper moisture source with a large band of cloud and areas of light rain to develop in response to that. That rainfall may bring yet another miserable weekend if you have anything outdoors to do.


There has been some evidence that the rainfall may spread further north into northern NSW and then onwards to QLD as a trough rolls through, but beyond about Friday the forecast loses its high confidence strap and quickly becomes lower confidence with models diverging. That is normal.


For now we know that the same pattern will persist for the state. Anywhere exposed to the westerly wind regime is likely to be the wettest parts of the state yet again.


Lets look at modelling.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern is fast flow again and there is little change to this week which is to be expected. The rainfall chances will be more concentrated through the south of the state in line with the westerly wind regime, anywhere exposed to the westerly wind regime will do best. Then GFS brings in a stronger system from Friday into the weekend, with the timing, scale and moisture content of the sequence still to be determined but there could be some decent chances of inland rainfall developing, this extending north and east through the period.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall spread looks largely unchanged for the next 10 days, but note the inland areas are starting to see more widespread light falls. The rainfall totals for the inland will begin to become clearer as we get closer to the weekend. Until then, the majority of the rainfall will be through southern and central NSW west of the divide with the chance of moderate falls. Then the most widespread rainfall again, the best opportunity is over the weekend into next week, with a stronger wave.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pressure pattern is largely unchanged as you can see but there are interesting signals for the latter part of this week into the weekend with more widespread rainfall possible with moisture increasing on the northern periphery of the long wave trough passing through the southeast later this week. The weather is expected to remain mild to warm and dry over the inland of QLD and central Australia, however this could change later in the outlook with the band of moisture and cloud, patchy rainfall may develop for areas between southern QLD into central Australia and back into the northwest of WA. That could signal the beginning of a pattern flip as the westerly winds try to retreat southwards into the second week of August. So inland areas, your weather forecast is low confidence in the day 5-10 range and so expect changes to it.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

The rainfall spread is increasing the inland rainfall for the latter part of the outlook but before then, a high chance of rainfall continues for southern Australia, that creeps into southern NSW at times, but the falls lighter earlier this week with the flow more northwesterly, meaning the air is drier in that flow and a little more stable. The front mid week will likely bring a stronger burst of showers, maybe even a thunderstorm again with strong winds. The system at the end of the period offers the most widespread rainfall for the state. Snowfalls will continue for the first half of this week, but the air warms up for the end of the week, above average statewide ahead of the next front over the weekend.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall again dominated by the westerly flow for the coming 5-7 days, but the last feature does start to bring up the chance of inland rainfall developing along an upper trough and I will draw that rainfall potential in for now, but realise that this chart will change in response to the better data coming in from mid week on the systems for later in the period. I do expect numbers for southern parts to ease as the frontal weather begins to decrease in frequency later in the period.

More weather details surrounding the medium term and latest updates on the moisture can be found in the National Weather Wrap - ensure you read it as there is a lot of information in there that supplements the state based analysis.




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