NSW - SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, AND POSSIBLY THE FAR NORTH. DRY ELSEWHERE UNDER THE HIGH.

OVERVIEW

Drier weather has returned to the southeast inland as a high begins to nose in from the west with a dry airmass moving through, so you may have noticed the sunny skies today following the rainfall overnight across southern inland portions of the state.


The weather is however shifting along the coast in the days ahead, as the flow turns from the drier southwesterly bearing today, into the south tomorrow and into the east from Wednesday through to the weekend.


An upper low is forecast to move throughout QLD and this could begin to shift into northern NSW but the impacts remain uncertain under the current guidance.


SHORT TERM

So we see onshore winds developing throughout the period which will bring the wet weather back to the coast, cloudy skies to the Great Dividing Range, but as many know across the inland, without the presence of a trough or low pressure, this is a stable and clearer drier airmass for inland areas.


A trough nosing in from QLD may trigger showers and thunderstorms nearer the QLD border through the Upper Western region but otherwise inland areas are dry through the weekend into early next week.


Along the coast the weather remains wet and unsettled with some moderate to heavy falls possible as we see the troughs deepening over QLD and the onshore flow strengthening with a high to the south. The coastal areas are sitting in the pinch point between both systems and hence the showery wet easterly winds to continue.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

As mentioned today throughout the multitude of posts explaining the various options surrounding the blocking pattern and how that may impact the nation’s weather moving forward, that will be the main element to watch.


Also seeing evidence (frustratingly) for moisture to creep back into WA via the jetstream, can this come into the southeast and southern interior ahead of cold fronts?


WEATHER VIDEO PM - MONDAY 18TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is likely to feature along the coast and inland to the eastern face of the Great Dividing Range which will lead to a similar pattern to what we saw earlier in the month with drier weather developing further west throughout the state. So drawing a line from Cooma through Canberra through Mudgee to Tenterfield and points west, you should be dry and the weather to the east of this line, the wetter you will be as you head towards the coast. The pattern looks to break down throughout the weekend though the showers will begin to contract towards the coastal fringe as the low moves away. There is the chance of a weak front approaching the southeast of the country with cloud developing over the weekend for western and southern areas, but rainfall is unlikely at this time until we see further systems next week moving in from the west.

A broader look at the region shows relatively light falls over the southern inland of the state and watching the rainfall over the northern inland closer to the QLD border for any signals on the developing rain in QLD shifting southwards through mid week.

Frost Risk Forecast Tuesday Morning

The frost risk is once again elevated through large areas of the state thanks to dry air surging northwards throughout the coming 12 hours and trapped under ridging moving in from the west, many areas could see severe frosts once again throughout Tuesday morning before conditions begin to ease again over many areas during Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST

MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

July 25th-August 2nd, 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

Moisture spreading through the jet stream over the west of the nation will continue to be shunted south and southeast where the rainfall bearing systems linking into the moisture will be found. Onshore winds on the east coast and moisture offshore QLD could lead to some showers and cloudy weather. Severe weather low at this time. The rest of the nation in relatively seasonal airmass with high pressure keeping things dry and deflecting the rainfall bearing systems away for now.

Rainfall Anomalies

A drier bias continues for the southern parts of the nation for now with the current guidance supporting the westerly wind belt being placed further south leading to less rainfall spreading these areas. The east coast may be dealing with further onshore winds and showers with Tasman Low pressure possible. The SWLD of the nation will see stronger cold fronts approaching. Showers and humid air over Cape York and PNG will keep the rainfall totals above normal thanks to warmer than normal SSTs.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week

The cooler southwesterly flow will bring the temperatures back down after a nice warm up over the southeast and eastern inland as we track through this week. The heat engine is looking like it is starting to warm up though through the coming 2 weeks and beyond. If that continues, then the rainfall over northern and central inland parts of the nation may start to pick up in the period into August.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information and context during this low confidence forecast.



00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture profile over the northeast of the nation remains excessive this week and that is leading to widespread rain and cloud cover with above average rainfall. The moisture profile in the west and that is of above seasonal values but not uncommon under these climate condition where the above average SSTs are in place. That moisture will drift eastwards with a lot of cloud this week into SA and VIC but the high pressure ridging through will stifle rainfall potential. Moisture with more intention of producing rainfall could impact the southern and southeastern coastal areas by the time we get to early next week and there are those usual signs of further large-scale moisture feeds coming through the jet stream as we move through the medium term towards the end of the month and into August. One will travel the country, eventually....

00Z ICON- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 7 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the best of the rainfall for the period in the state is expected to be along the coast as the winds veer into the southeast tomorrow and then easterly bearing during mid-week through the weekend. Now while the wet weather could be moderate over the period, it will be the persistence of the showery weather. The coverage of rainfall over QLD may sneak into northern NSW in the short term. Otherwise, the block keeps the rain there for this week and the remainder of the region looks dry until we see the block clear.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall where we will take a closer look at the period for the end of the month beyond the block hopefully!





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