NSW - SHOWERS CONTRACT TO THE COAST THEN A NICE WARM UP AHEAD OF MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

The spring roller coaster ride we talk about continues for the nation, with waves of low pressure bringing bursts of rainfall and colder weather at times, but between the systems, the temperatures warm up dramatically. This adding more dynamics for active weather into the future, but can we see any of that coming during the next week or so?


Latest blog and analysis.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall over coastal areas will become the focus over the coming 24-36hrs with onshore winds feeding a trough that is anchored along the coastal hinterlands overnight and into Tuesday morning. Some moderate to localised heavy falls are possible along the coast north of Sydney to about Port Macquarie. Then conditions ease. The next rain as outlined in the weather blog is coming up this weekend with the bulk of the falls on and west of the GDR with moderate falls over the southeast inland. Lighter falls are expected for areas further north.

Tristate


Central West

Southeast NSW

Northeast NSW

Hail Forecast Tuesday

Some of the taller showers have a chance of producing small hail over the coastal areas during Tuesday. No damaging hail expected and accumulation should be relatively light with upper level winds moving cells along at a steady rate.

Frost Forecast Tuesday

Frost returns to inland areas and there could be some severe patches through the southeast and along the western side of the GDR where it is protected from the southeast flow. This will continue into Wednesday and Thursday morning. Farmer beware.

DATA


Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - next 10 days

The cold air pool over NSW is now on the way towards the east and the rest of the nation is now in sinking air motion under high pressure. A colder southerly is working its way north through the east. In the west, temperatures are on the rise as the winds veer into the northeast in coming days ahead of the next major front which is expected to bring widespread showers and storms through the region. The front will then move east but be forced southeast by high pressure blocking the Tasman and a strong upper high over the nation. The front and trough will still bring down moisture from the northwest and patchy rainfall under a large cloud band is likely for inland SA but more widespread over NSW and northern VIC. The weather remains dry for much of inland Australia during the coming 10 days with dry air damming. Up north, the build up preview will soon be flushed out by drier air later this week, but return in a week's time, so the seasons are shifting. A follow up front next week may reinforce below average temperatures for coastal areas from WA through to the southeast with light rainfall.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

This paints the picture well, with drier air over the nation at the moment being propelled north by southerly winds as high pressure digs in from the west and a cold front surges through the Tasman. The weather controlled by high pressure leading to sinking air motion so clear skies expected. Otherwise the next major pulse of moisture comes down from the Indian Ocean later this week and that looks better with regards to the IOD. The only issue is that it is decoupled from the cold front and low so not much rainfall but a lot of cloud will form. Then moisture may return via easterly winds over northern and eastern Australia next week while frontal weather and southwest winds keeps the drier air surging through southern and central parts of the nation, the battle between the airmasses continues.

Euro 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall as mentioned above in my forecast, limited to coastal areas and focussed mainly with the system rolling in from WA mid week and into the southeast during Friday and into the weekend. Then not much next week.

I will have another update at 9pm looking at the rainfall from all modelling - harvest is coming soon and people need to know the latest so this should be appointment reading - it is not a tome of reading but important information.

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