Well has it not been a busy 8 weeks of weather across NSW, well thankfully (for me) a chance to take a breath with high pressure and drier air combining to bring more stable weather.

With the high to the east and southeast of the state, this will support the presence of showers and cloudy skies from time to time.

But overall, the weather very settled and this is a chance to dry out ahead of the next wave of humid and unsettled weather, which will return through this month.

Lets take a look at the short term to see how long the drier weather lasts for. It is certainly looking quieter which we can all be grateful for!


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains lean, to non existent over the far west with dry air, clear skies and light winds, hotter weather developing. A chance to dry out for many communities while flood waters work their way through the river systems. The rainfall is largely expected on and east of the GDR with moderate falls north of Sydney, possibly heavy falls about those wetter areas exposed to the easterly flow. The wet weather along the east coast should be with us until this time next week.


Refer to the video for more details on the daily breakdown.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details in the video but to repeat, a quieter week period with drier air over the southern 2/3rds of the nation. The northern third remains humid and unsettled with a monsoon trough nearby and another trough over the east will weaken as a high moves over the south and east reducing the showery weather.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The significant moisture is continuing to push north through the nation and take a look at the GFS suggesting that conditions are going to reflect early Autumn across the nation with very dry air even into the medium term. Not so sure on that still, given that the MJO rotates around the ensemble data sets are wetter than the single runs which populate all the wonderful apps, so caution required in interpreting the data. The short term at least out to about 10 days will be drier and quieter through the southern two thirds. More humid in the east with a few showers and onshore winds and heavier moisture should be in play over northern Australia, regardless of what this says.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More details coming up from 8am EDT.

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