NSW - SHOWERS CONTINUING ABOUT THE COAST - THE INLAND QUIET FOR A WHILE.

The high pressure ridge is expected to take up residence over parts of inland Australia, covering much of the nation and bringing a period of settled weather for many away from the coast which has been hard to find. Some spots in far western NSW have struggled though this year so we need this pattern flip to then transition into better rainfall odds!


Fingers crossed.


Over the east coast, showers in onshore winds and the chance of thunderstorms will continue with a coastal trough and a weak low offshore. That cycle repeats itself later this week again and then we will see a nice warm up then move from the inland to the coast next week.


The next major rainfall opportunities are towards the end of this month and into early November with moisture eventually spilling from the northwest through to southeast across Australia.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is more likely the further east you go as per the the outlook from Climate models weeks ago and here we are, seeing that trend play out, the inland dries out under an upper high which is expected to shift conditions to a warmer phase as we track into the end of the month. So for now the further east you are the better coverage of showers and storms with the troughs in the coming 7 days. The next batch of statewide rain comes in from later next week which is just outside of this chart. So stay watching the forecasts, that big area of no rainfall will fill in by the end of the week.

Northeast NSW - Where the rainfall will be uneven but heaviest.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are set to return once again on Wednesday afternoon and evening over the NE of NSW and into SE QLD with the chance of thunderstorms turning severe with all modes of severe weather a low to moderate risk once again. The risk is not as high as the events of Monday but this will be a protracted period of showers and thunderstorms from this week into the weekend.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

A low to moderate risk of flash flooding with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, with the slopes of the GDR and hinterland under the highest risk over the Northern Rivers.

Large Hail Risk Wednesday

A low to moderate risk of large hail through the region during Wednesday afternoon and evening, however no giant hail is expected at this time.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

A moderate risk of the strongest storms through the GDR and over the far northeast turning severe with wind gusts over 100km/h during the afternoon and evening.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is slack at the moment away from the west, with a blocking pattern setting up over the Tasman Sea which is blocking the passage of a strong complex change passing through WA today. We will see a trough that is along the NSW coast with a weak low drive showers and storms tonight and again on Wednesday. The system over the west will collapse over SA and be pushed south of the continent because of the block over the Tasman which we have spoken about, but a trough will remain over the land and become ill defined and devoid of moisture so it will pass through SA, most of western NSW and VIC in dry fashion. From Friday, as that system begins to move further east, you will see that system emerge into showers and thunderstorms for eastern NSW and QLD again this weekend. Another system will approach WA early next week and run into the Bight this time next week and likely help to pull down moisture from the tropics via inland WA and SA to increase the showers and thunderstorms risks over SA and VIC through NSW at the end of the run.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

No change from this morning or indeed yesterday. The dry air circulating around the southeast and central inland will largely remain trapped under ridging throughout the remainder of this week leading to the driest weather VIC and parts of NSW have seen in quite some time. The southeast and east coast sits under low level moisture and with weak troughs passing through, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along these as they meander through, especially over eastern NSW and QLD. Some of the storms again in the short term forecasts could be severe. Over the tropics, deep moisture is pooling and will be dislodged from the tropics and sent south through the continent next week as the upper air flow turns northerly and helps to propel the moisture into a developing trough over southern WA and into SA later in the outlook period. Overall a typical late October look.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall is becoming very hard to draw on charts when it looks like this. After the rainfall over the SWLD of WA is through, the rainfall will be derived from showers and thunderstorms, your number will vary and the distribution will be uneven so that is the best I can offer. The next widespread event is towards the end of the month, timing of that system is the issue more than whether it will happen or not.

A closer look in - note the showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, how can you draw a chart on that!!?

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more

More details on all things rainfall after 9pm EDT with my model wrap.




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