The humidity expected to increase as we go through the outlook period, but the trigger for all the showers and thunderstorms in recent weeks is expected to lift out and over into SA, where a nasty severe weather event is forecast to develop, leading to widespread flooding and severe thunderstorm activity.

The long fetch easterly winds will continue for the state, meaning that showers will be featuring over the coastal areas, mainly north of Sydney. The guidance on the rainfall coverage has been difficult to pin down with the ridge fluctuating in position, but showery weather to persist until early next week.

Towards Australia Day, it appears that the high heat and humidity will give way to a few showers and thunderstorms about the state, more likely over the Alpine ranges and the ACT. The thundery weather may begin to increase towards mid to late week. There is the risk of severe weather as one wave of the trough comes out of SA and into the east.

Until then, tropical Summer weather continues with humid days, sultry nights and suppressed rainfall activity over the inland.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has now become patchy through the inland of the state with the showers and thunderstorms likely to be absent for a number of days. There is a low risk over the far north and northeast tomorrow but that risk reduces as the instability amplifies over SA. Now through the weekend and into next week, coastal showers will continue but with the ridge close by, the rainfall rates will begin to come down from where they have been today and yesterday. The next wave of more widespread rainfall comes with the trough out of SA with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping from mid to late week over the state. Some of that could be heavy over the western and southern parts of the state and the ACT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

A low risk of thunderstorms over the far northwest and northeast during the afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected.

DATA - Refer to the video for the breakdown of daily weather information for the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The short term offers that severe weather event over SA, that will be the focus of the forecasts for much of the outlook period. Heavy rainfall lasting for much of the period will result in flooding of large areas of the outback. Moisture will eventually spill eastwards into NSW and VIC with showers and thunderstorms increasing. This will be the case in southern QLD as well. For the north the wet weather is set to increase dramatically in the coming days. Modelling remains poor for the medium term, so focussing more on the short term, the pieces are in place. The monsoon trough over the north will bring a renewed burst of heavy rainfall and strong winds from the weekend throughout the remainder of the month feeding troughs over the southern and eastern inland of the nation, leading to more above average rainfall chances. I will mention that the tropical activity up north indicates the monsoon will remain in place over northern Australia and now is the time for people living in the north of the nation to be prepared for significant weather in the coming weeks with monsoonal break conditions ending.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

A very deep moisture source remains the dominant feature for much of the nation bar the far southwest of the nation and the eastern inland for a period this weekend as the high rotates through to the Tasman Sea. Humidity values will increase for most of the nation next week with higher temperatures and unstable weather also featuring. Where it rains, it will be efficient and productive weather.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - this will change but gives you an idea it is a humid and unsettled fortnight on the way for most of the state.

More details coming up in the models and rainfall wrap for all you rain lovers!!!

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