NSW - SHOWERS CLEARING TONIGHT BUT BECOMING WINDY FOR THE INLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT

That front could bring period of gales and light to moderate rainfall mid week through inland areas and moderate to heavier falls for the slopes in the southeast with snowfalls redeveloping.


The moisture is available but not deep, with this next frontal boundary. You will note the cloud cover is not overly convective and supportive of moderate to heavy widespread rainfall, due to the lifting mechanism, the front, falling apart on approach to the southeast. The winds will be the main feature with this system.


The system over WA is expected to race east and be near Adelaide this time tomorrow the a strong and gusty northwest breeze ahead of it sending the temperatures well up. Note the moisture that is coming in with that front now. The yellow front is where it is expected in the next 24hrs.




We see a spike in temperatures later this week as a ridge builds over northeast NSW and this shifting the winds into the northwest and a long fetch northwesterly breeze will drag in the warm to very warm dry air from the northwest of WA into the southeast of the nation, some locations on Thursday or Friday could reach the low 30s over the Upper Western and mid 20s into the Central West and Northwest Slopes. So a sign of the times.


Another front coming through during Friday into Saturday may now bring the chance of a rain band as well with a moisture surge coming down from the northwest through SA into VIC and then NSW. The deeper moisture levels may increase rainfall with that feature.

Euro 00z - Simulated IR Satellite Imagery Saturday

The moisture coming down through the nation from northwest to southeast could provide a decent burst of rainfall now over the weekend, though it is very tricky to pick how much of an impact the moisture will have with the frontal system. As I have been stating the systems will all of a sudden upgrade a day or two out from arriving so we have to watch each system as they come through.

Another this time next week may spark more inland rainfall.


Cooler weather with a few showers for the weekend is likely over southern inland areas of the state but the forecast confidence becomes quite low for next week.


Lets look at modelling.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The fast flow pattern we know is going to drive the weather for the next few days, each system as it approaches will carry some risk of gale force winds. The moisture ahead of each system will also mean that rainfall along the fronts will be widespread but heavy, no, not according to the GFS tonight. However as the systems close in on the state we can be more specific about each one as they roll through. Next week the GFS keeps the fast flow pattern going with stronger waves of low pressure passing through.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

The rainfall forecast from GFS keeps the same pattern as we have seen for the past 4 weeks with those exposed to a westerly wind regime picking up on the rainfall while the rest of the north of the nation is dry. That will mean the south of NSW will see the bulk of the rainfall while the northern areas of NSW will see light and patchy rainfall from time to time but nothing heavy or widespread AT THIS STAGE.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro still holds a similar pattern as the GFS until the weekend and then we still see the models diverging, with high pressure settling in over the southeast and east next week to take us through to the end of the first week of August. This will see the dry air clear the southeast and east out which would then reset the moisture over the nation, pooling it over the northwest of the nation ready to be utilised for the middle of August for the next wave of low pressure. This is where we will see inland rainfall return. Otherwise some reasonable rainfall for southern and central NSW is likely this week with lighter falls north. The most widespread rainfall is Wednesday and through the weekend with the larger front pushing through with some moisture surging into this feature.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall largely unchanged for the next 5 days but falls are coming up for the Wednesday system and the system over the weekend. The one to watch is that weekend feature which could turn into quite a healthy rainfall event, if the moisture phases with the front passing through so that is something to watch in the coming days for the short term. In the medium term I will be watching that moisture that builds north and west of of the nation and over the interior as that may bring more widespread falls for mid August.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

I have reintroduced some higher falls for the inland due to the moisture profile being a little deeper over the weekend with that larger system. Light rainfall for the state during mid week could be productive the further south you are. For the north of the state you will see more light rainfall over the weekend but the second system will bring that moderate rainfall to areas of south and central NSW. The rainfall will ease through next week as the flow relaxes.

More weather details to come.


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