NSW - SHOWERS CLEARING INTO VICTORIA - A DRIER SPELL DEVELOPS.

ANALYSIS

The slow clearing process for the state is expected to continue as a dry cold southwesterly airmass moves northwards, with that colder and drier airmass and a clearing sky, we now have to be on the watch for frost in the short term though sunny weather will return which will be welcome.


In the previous few days, we have seen some above average rainfall over the northern parts of the state along the QLD border. The rainfall over the southern interior and extending into the central parts of the state and over the divide, further seasonal rainfall has led to further saturation of the soils. This has also extended into parts of the ACT.


Snowfalls of up to 50cm have been observed over Alpine areas setting a large snowpack on the ground.


SHORT TERM

The high-pressure system over the Bight is forecast to remain the dominant force for the weather nationally. On the eastern face of that high, a cold southwesterly flow is forecast to continue to the end of the week and that will be enough to offset frost risk for the plains but once the high-pressure cell moves closer, then frosts will increase in coverage this weekend. Rainfall, very lean across the state from Wednesday right through the weekend.


LONG TERM

We have seen on some modelling this morning that the high pressure ridge is forecast to be not as strong and persistent through the eastern parts of the nation and this could now open the door for the westerly winds returning to southern parts of the nation, helping to project the moisture out of the Indian Ocean via the jet stream and this may interact with the frontal weather coming out of WA, leading to rainfall returning mid to late next week.


AREAS TO WATCH

The moisture values offshore WA is expected to increase over the next two weeks with that moisture forecast to move southeast through the jet stream and into the southern and eastern inland of the country for the latter part of the month. The rainfall looks to favour southern parts of NSW, but better rainfall expected to be found over VIC and into SA.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY 7TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not much to see here, which is great news for many people (3 years ago I would have been shot for saying that), high pressure now starting to move through the Bight is extending a ridge into the state leading to that drier signal from the models and that is likely to verify. The rainfall over the southern interior tonight should be mostly gone by tomorrow night and snowfalls contracting back into VIC by Friday. The weekend, lovely, cold starts but dry days with more sunshine the further north you head away from VIC across the inland. The next rainfall is forecast to emerge via cold fronts coming into the southeast inland of the country with falls likely to return to the state, mainly light for now, but that looks to commence from this time next week into mid-week. The back half of the month is looking wetter for the state but favouring areas on and to the west of the divide, drier to the east along the coast.

The higher rainfall across NSW will be found in the far southeast near the Alpine ranges, I will add rainfall back to the remainder of the state as the confidence on the moisture and rainfall spread for next week becomes much clearer.

Farmers and Graziers - Remainder of the Week

The cold southwesterly winds are forecast to moderate throughout the coming week, with the high risk to stock contracting further south into VIC and SA as the high approaches. Conditions throughout should return to seasonal by late in the weekend.

Frost Forecast Wednesday Morning

Frost is likely in a broad area on Wednesday morning but is dependent on whether the winds drop out in conjunction with clearer skies, but as we move through the week, the risk increases.

Frost Watch - This Weekend

The risk area remains large, but it will be refined as we get a better idea on how the high-pressure ridge behaves as it approaches from the weekend, which looks to not sit over the region as long as what was being forecast yesterday.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and the daily breakdown to cut down on the reading below.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more information on the short- and medium-term outlook as that will give you the best idea and context behind the model data.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture values are still running well below average for the east but that is conjunction with very cold air. The colder drier air is surging through northwards to the deep tropics over the course of the week. The opposite can be said for areas over the west and northwest of the nation where further moisture is expected to increase and spill across the nation via the jet stream next week and into the following weekend, which may be the start of the next rainfall for southern and eastern Australia. The moisture values running through the westerly wind belt in the medium term are too high to have such low rainfall projections for southern Australia so expect this to change.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - it may be looking the driest it has all year for many over northern interior parts of the southeast but do be rest assured that this will change, so enjoy the drier period and make the most of it as it will change.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.


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