NSW - SHOWERS CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST, DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, WARMER INLAND THIS WEEKEND.

ANALYSIS

It is looking fairly settled to end the working week across the state as we see high pressure building further again tonight and that will lead to sinking air motion and clear the skies.


With the high moving east over the coming days, the weather is set to warm up nicely and many areas should see the warmest weather in about 4 weeks.


But a change is on the approach next week.


SHORT TERM

That change has been tricky to pin down for a number of reasons outlined in the videos and the chat on here in the past few days and will continue to move around in the updates. Once we see that system on the satellite picture being analysed in real time, then the forecast confidence increases.


For now, increasing rainfall chances for areas across the state, with the highest rainfall chances forecast near a change moving passing through during the early part of the week.


The position of this system will then impact the systems following in the westerly wind belt following mid to late next week and also the development of the system over northern Australia with moisture spreading southwards. There have been rumblings for inland rainfall over the NT and QLD which may shift southwards into the eastern and southeast inland, but the confidence is poor.


LONG TERM

So that forms the longer-term forecast interest, do we see the rainfall over the north of the country spreading southwards or do we see the frontal weather win out with the negative SAM phase? That will be the question that remains unanswered for a few more days yet so be patient and any strengthening of the forecast confidence, and I will advise accordingly.


It does appear that the focus of the rainfall may be over the southeast with the frontal weather later next week into the following weekend and patchy to widespread rainfall possible over the northern and northeast areas of the state.


AREAS TO WATCH

Could also see some deepening moisture over in the west of the nation as well with the chance of a fairly vigorous cloud band forming towards the end of the month over WA which could traverse the nation into early July. It does come down to the system over the east and northeast and whether that develops or not later next week.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 16TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Still looking lean for rainfall through the remainder of the week and into the weekend for the inland with perhaps some light showers developing about parts of the coast, moderate about the extreme coastal fringe with southeasterly winds. But the bulk of you dry through to early next week. A strengthening front over SA and VIC during early next week will approach from the west during later Monday into Tuesday with rain developing over the state's west and then moving eastwards. Models struggling to pin down the orientation of this feature, so it would be safer to go with the idea of heavier rainfall the further south you are with the feature as it moves through, but I am covering a large area of northern NSW to take in the margin of error at the moment, but this forecast will change. The weather may dry out over the interior again by mid to late week, but it comes down to the system's placement which is yet to be determined. There may be further rainfall and cloud extending from the north later next week into the weekend with a trough passing over QLD.

Rainfall numbers coming up over the inland with further evidence that the low-pressure system in the short term could be sitting a little further north of where we have seen it in some of the modelling leading to more rainfall through early next week. Showers may develop over the coast this weekend and then again later next week with an upper trough moving through.

Frost Risk Forecast Friday

A low to moderate risk of frost once again over higher terrain in the northeast of NSW and nosing into southern QLD during Friday morning, but conditions will ease quickly once the sun is up!

MEDIUM TERM

June 23rd-30th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Once again, low confidence in the forecasts into the end of the month and a lot of the rainfall forecasts are very low confidence for northern and eastern areas with the upper trough passing through. The rainfall over the south of the nation is at seasonal values with frontal weather passing through.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias strengthening for parts of the eastern inland once again with a cold pool of air riding behind a cold front later next week then sitting over the eastern interior, continuing to buck the trend of climate models that were suggesting somewhat warmer conditions than what we have observed in the east. Seasonal temperatures out west but the warmer weather over the northwest will continue with dry air

DATA - Refer to the video for more information related to the charts above plus the daily breakdown through the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video however I am watching the two major systems of potential in the medium term, the event over northern Australia, where does that end up and the system that could come over WA at the end of the month with a major moisture infeed with above average rainfall.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

We are seeing that major rainfall event emerging through the medium term and clearly that has got a lot of people interested, but once again it is of low confidence and will be until early next week we will know more about that feature. For now, we are looking at the bulk of the wet weather found over southern parts of the nation via frontal weather.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - I cannot add more caution to the wind with the rainfall over parts of the east through the medium term, so refer to the video for more information. For now the bulk of the rainfall is associated with the westerly wind regime over the southern parts of the nation, so coastal and adjacent inland areas of the south will see the best of it, and there may be a few showers over the east coast this weekend, possibly moderate about the extreme coastal fringe north of Sydney to Coffs.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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